Attack of the Clones

A lawsuit that has been filed against the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) is coming to trial next week in Texas. The lawsuit is seeking the repeal of a rule in AQHA's rule book which would force AQHA to admit cloned horses to run alongside.


Abraham & Veneklasen Joint Venture
v.
American Quarter Horse Association

"UPDATE JULY 8, 2013: Parties attended the docket call this morning in federal court and announced they are ready for trial. The Court has set July 16 as the trial date. It is anticipated the trial will take two to three weeks."

https://www.aqha.com/Home/AQHA%20Cloning%20Lawsuit%20Resources.aspx

http://investigations.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/07/09/19356605-horse-cloners-try-to-force-their-way-into-the-starting-gate?lite

If this ever gets over to thoroughbred racing, you can imagine the furore it might cause and on the hand, you can also see copies of geldings like Wise Dan being made and if those turn out to be stallions, the line can be restored.. Hmmm

Got an email today from Nike about custom sneakers.

You can customize colors, sole, trim colors, laces etc and also add a personal ID (upto 6 characters on each tongue - they do screen for some "offensive words" like f* words etc.--but the screening program is not very good). However if you do play around and are able to get past the screening program that does not mean the company may still manufacture it as I am sure they might have a human check prior to actual production or printing. So, your order could get cancelled (or you will be emailed) at some stage if you really want to risk using words that may violate their policy.

Anyhow, my choices would be Holy Bull or Ghost Zapper - Hope they are not "trademarked names".

and if I had $ 145 to spend on sneakers I would get either of those as a commemoration those great horses' achievements.

Here is the Nike Personal ID store link.

I am just doing this for fun as I recently watched Ghost Zapper's BC classic win and am generally pumped up by front running winner (like Fort Larned now) and hopefully Verrazano (at 1.25 mi in the future?). Below, is the video of the front running Ghost Zapper in his BC Classic record making run at Lone Star Park (record time: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghostzapper).

Disclosure: No Benefits derived from this posting

Preakness: Bets just to cash a ticket

The 138th Preakness Stakes, the middle jewel in the Triple Crown Series in American (US) thoroughbred racing, will be held coming Saturday - May 18th, 2013 - at Pimlico in Maryland.

You can get official information from the Preakness Website.

While I have not looked at the full card being offered on that day (a very nice card is being offered over the two days Friday and Saturday), but I thought I would share some thoughts on how to bet the Preakness with a returning Derby winner. 

Of course, it is very common that the Derby winner returns to compete in the Preakness. In the last 25-27 years, Grindstone seems to be the only who did not start at the Preakness after a Derby win.

Statistically, out of 26 starts of returning Derby winners, we have 10 of them going on to win the Preakness.  They also finished 2nd in 7 cases and 3rd in 3 starts. All in all, 20 out of 26 times they ran in the money. So a show bet seems to have a high probability of getting some money back. 

Now let us look at the general trend of the toteboard odds at Preakness.

The Derby winner has gone off as the favorite in 16 out of those 26 starts. In some (3-4) of those 16 starts, they have been odds-on favorites (less than even money), but that is not to say they won or finished on the board in those cases. Some examples of compelling favorites not finishing on the board have been Barbaro (rip),  Fusaichi Pegasus, Street Sense etc.

But, a lot of these Derby winners do run in the money and having said that, their win odds are not so great. But if you just want a thrill of cashing a ticket, then betting the Derby winner to PL/SH and a small bet at Win could be had for all of under ten dollars. $2 Win, $ 3 PL and $5 Show. 

That is about basic betting for now. During the week and after the post position draw on Wednesday, I will present a more detailed analysis of the 14 runners and also try to predict some bettable choices!

Sudden Deaths, Breakdowns and Drugging of Horses: Multiple Problems in Racing

The common element in both news items below is about the use of drugs in horse racing, both legal and illegal ones and the probably impact that seems to be having on overall health of horses. This in turn, affects safety of jockeys and integrity of the sports from a bettor's perspective. The more serious issue is definitely equine health and jockey safety, so without further ado, here are the links.

Sudden Death Spike in California Race Horses in 2012 fiscal year

Another breaking story is the investigation by the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) into the incidents of sudden deaths of horses. More detail can be obtained from the Bloodhorse.com report.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/77448/baffert-horses-big-part-of-sudden-death-spike#ixzz2Q6iBqGru

Related news in Australia: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/drugs-link-to-horse-deaths-claim/story-e6freuy9-1226152163441 (hat tip to Seabiscuit_AR from pace advantage forums)


Racing in Disarray (NYT headline truncated)
The New York Times had come out with an analysis last year of breakdowns and deaths and other incidents in horse racing, that shows that incident rates in US are double that of the racing in England.

Their data also lists incident rates by track for all the major tracks in US. In comparison, they also note that incident rate in Woodbine tracks (Toronto Canada) are significantly lower.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/us/death-and-disarray-at-americas-racetracks.html

Interactive Video discussion of the risks for horses and jockeys.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/24/us/for-horse-and-jockey-risks-vary.html

The one angle which has not been covered (and perhaps harder to unconver too) is any kind of story related to the insurance on these horses and the payouts if any.

OTHER RESOURCES and STARTING POINTS

CHRB's annual report can be downloaded from
http://www.chrb.ca.gov/annual_reports/2012_annual_report.pdf

C H R B website

New York Racing Comission

Ontario Racing Commission (Canada)

Happy New Year 2013

Happy New Year

A Very Happy New Year to all the readers of this little blog! May 2013 bring lot of joy, happiness and prosperity to you. We hope to provide a lot of good selections much in advance in this coming year.

I would like to take this moment to thank some of the key people who have helped in various ways in my equine pursuits: Ed Burgart (Los Alamitos), Jose Contreras (losponies blog), A good buddy from Pennsylvania (Turn it in for home) and several others on paceadvantage.com - in particular - Chris Longshot, Solid_Gold, redeye, judd  among others!

Animal Kingdom (KY Derby 2011 winner) to stand in Australia

Animal Kingdom (the winner of the 2011 edition of the Kentucky Derby by Yum! Brands) will stand in stud in Australia later in 2013, following the acquisition of majority interest in breeding rights by Australia based Arrowfield Stud.

More details on this are available from Bloodhorse.com

We are really happy to see Animal Kingdom being raced further into his 5th year, rather than being retired fast in the Derby winning year itself, like many other horses in the game. His closing kick is something really fun to look forward to. In the Breeder's cup AK did very well to come 2nd in spite of traffic etc. Of course, he was up against Wise Dan - one of the top horses this year! Check out the video below:

Thanksgiving was Last month.. but

I felt I should really give a shout out here for the folks at Idabet.
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Contrast this with my Xpressbet (avg-good), Betptc (good) and Twinspires (worst ever) experiences.

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Queen's Plate Canada 2012

One of the biggest racing days in Canada. The 1 1/4 Canadian Queen's Plate.

DRF Free Past Performance

1,4,6 7, 12, 14 are my narrowed down selections. But really BET WORTHY are:

14 IRISH MISSION & 7 GOLDEN RIDGE and 1 RIVER RUSH

1: River Rush - has carried 126lb around on 2 turn 1 1/8 mi and won by 5 lengths. So he could stretch out for more well I think. But the price on him might be low.

2.Has some experience carrying 126 lb but failed to impress in any way in the PlateTrial. Also he was stuck at the 5/6th position the whole time. no pace improvement. Has closed better at 7f, but maybe we are asking for much.

3. Baker trainee (same as :1: River Rush) and was supplemented at 25k, so that might mean something as to what the trainer thinks of his chances!! Has worked out good lately. He is a gelding, so he might rate better and do the distance well. Tri/supers

4. Strait of Dover The ML favorite with convincing victory at 8.5F and has been in winning form. However, he has nt raced for a while..why?

5.toss.

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6. Wilcox Workouts of up to 7F recently. hmm! Lightly raced horse, could be wild card if the price goes even better! Could make money even on PL/SH with this one. Son of Giant's Causeway, distance should be ok I think.

7. Golden Ridge Contreras L on board, Casse trainer. Good workout, Distorted Humor sire. Horse is improving 3-2-1 at the 8.5 distance, now stretching to 10f. If odds better than 6-1 at post, worth betting wps.

8. Has the name ULTIMATE in his name and I am sucker for that. ok jokes apart, I feel that this is a slow horse so he can be tossed out of major bets.

9-13. i am ignoring these even if they have chances, because I just spotted
ok coming back:

12; Big Creek  has Dominguez on him and he could get a better ride. The only issue is what I see is that Indian charlie babies dont seem to stretch out too well.

14. Irish Mission. THis horse tracked a slower pace than the race where River Rush won last (same day) and won her last race well driving in the stretch. She has a 5lb advantage and has shown that she can win 9f in 1:48.72 (vs River Rush 1:48.97). She just needs a faster pace to track. I just hope Alex Solis handles her well! But she is worth some bets (even for win) simply because of her latest workout, Giant's Causeway connection and Wo familiarity now.

Kentucky Derby Changes Selection Method

One of the oldest sports in running (138 years and going strong), the Kentucky Derby (ahem.. presented by Yum Brands as it is usually touted nowadays) is changing its method of selection. It used to winnings from graded stakes of the top 20 horses from over 185 races, but now that system is being changed to a points system from about 36 races.

USA today is covering it in full.

The main goal is also to get 20 horses that are in the best form to qualify for the Derby and reduce chances of one hit wonders or horses that have won big at distances shorter than 1 mile to come into the Derby.

The campaign of races leading up to the Derby is being divided into four phases.

The first is called the Kentucky Derby Prep Season, typically spanning stakes from late September through late February. .

Then follows a "Kentucky Derby Championship Season", which typically will span the 10-week run-up to the Derby. The phase highlights mostly traditional prep races.

That's followed by the most important phase of the Kentucky Derby Championship Season. The races in this stage encompass the biggest events: the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Toyota Blue Grass and Louisiana Derby, while also including the $2 million U.A.E. Derby in Dubai. Those races will offer a 100-40-20-10 point scale.

Finally, there's a last chance "wild-card" setup which features Keeneland's Lexington Stakes, two weeks before the Derby, and Churchill Downs' opening-night Derby Trial, a week before the Kentucky Derby.

What do you think? Add your comments on whether you think this is a good thing or bad thing or "change is always good" ..