December 5, 2010

Natural Gas Stocks to Watch for.. GMXR SD

Natural gas prices had been relatively steady till about Thanksgiving (See monthly price fluctuation here). However, with a cold wave beginning to sweep the nation, NG prices are inching up too.

After Thanksgiving weekend, spot prices have gone up by almost ten percent!!  See price movement (in absolute dollars) in the EIA chart below.

Some new natural gas plays become crucial stocks to watch now.

Among those are:
Sandridge Energy (which upped its production guidance to 7.3 mil from 7.0 mil tonnes recently - link)

GMXR An interesting viewpoint on GMR is provided on the Motley fool website. Ignore the 3 star rating metric though.. it does nt mean anything..

November 21, 2010

Celldex Vaccine Meets Midstage Goal - Expect Sharp Rise in Share Price

Celldex Therapeutics Inc (CLDX) said its experimental vaccine for the the most common type of brain cancer met the main goal of extending survival time for patients without a progression of the disease in a mid-stage trial.

The company's injectable CDX-110 is designed to treat glioblastoma, the most common and aggressive type of brain cancer. It extended survival in a trial of 65 brain cancer patients.

The company plans a larger, clinical trial in the second half of next year. As a trader or as a long term position maker, one should focus on acquiring in the $4.50 to $5 range during pullbacks and then holding steady for 2-3 years. Initiate small positions and stay put. Also, be sure to set your mental loss tolerance well before you put money in.

November 19, 2010

Cosmo accepts Royalty payment as SNTS shares - GREAT POSITIVE signal

Form 8K: Santarus, Inc. (the "Company") and Cosmo Technologies Limited ("Cosmo") had entered into in December 2008, Cosmo earned a $3.0 million clinical milestone in November 2010 based upon the positive results of the U.S. and European Phase III clinical studies for budesonide MMX�. Cosmo elected to receive payment of the milestone through the issuance of additional shares of the Company's common stock. As a result, on November 17, 2010, the Company issued to Cosmo 972,132 shares of the Company's common stock, par value $0.0001 per share. SNTS quote
  •  While Cosmo could have taken $3 million as cold cash, it chose to accept SNTS shares.
  • Also these shares were valued at $3.08/share ($3 mil/972132 shares) which is a positive sign on a day that the shares closed at $2.90.
Surely this is a good sign that Cosmo Technologies thinks that SNTS has lot of room to grow or a good buyout possibility !!

Sentiment: Long SNTS

November 9, 2010

More to Watch

SNTS: After it got hit by earnings, if you have nt already got SNTS, this is a good time start a new position if you want to have some fun.

SYMC: A very good opportunity to get in. Looking at the call volume for the January 2011, $20 calls, it seems like price might definitely go up in near future to over 19 and then hang about there.

Will round up with a couple of energy plays TSO (get in around the 14's) , EGY (wait for pull back) and one retail play: Target (TGT) (any time before Xmas is a good time).

November 5, 2010


Watch out for these pharma/biotech stocks to show increasing activity in the next couple of months.

SNTS: Has fair amount of cash on hand ($100 million), low debt, great pipeline and good revenue (2009- $180 million). The company also has a low float so any positive action would trigger large increases in price due to short covering. Also the possibility of a takeover is quite high.

CLDX: Although PFE snapped ties with CLDX, there is a likelihood that some other pharma company might snap it up! They have sufficient cash on hand to go forward for now. (speculative play - depending on their trials etc)

INCY: This stock has been doing quite well on a technical basis and performing on its own right as a pharma company. Look to INCY climbing after earnings and also to around well over $25 by the end of the year.

ISIS: Receiving payments and royalties on a regular basis, ISIS has been a steady performer, with recent partnerships with  GSK and also (Regulus with Sanofi) ISIS is a strong player in the mRNA market. ISIS did two positive Phase 3 studies of mipomersen in the past year and once that drug (Sold by Genzyme) gets marketing approval, the royalty payments would increase. For technical traders, if ISIS breaks 10 and holds, then there can be significant upside.

November 4, 2010

Tesoro Corp (TSO) Oil Refiner Beats on Revenue and Earnings

RATED BUY. Also, this stock is also considered a speculative take over candidate.

Tesoro Corp, (San Antonio HQ), West Coast oil refiner beat consensus estimates on Third quarter 2010 Earnings and Revenue. (link)
Tesoro Corporation (NYSE:TSO - News) today reported third quarter 2010 net earnings of $56 million, or $0.39 per diluted share compared to net earnings of $33 million, or $0.24 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2009. The Company earned $73 million or $0.51 per diluted share for the period before one-time after-tax expenses of $17 million primarily associated with the Anacortes refinery outage.

Third quarter segment operating income was $201 million excluding the one-time items, compared to $137 million in the third quarter a year ago. The increase in operating income was driven by stronger distillate margins, improved feedstock cost and the Company’s improvement initiatives. These benefits were partially offset by decreased gasoline margins and reduced throughput. The reduction in throughput was primarily a result of the continued shut-down of the Anacortes refinery and the planned turnaround of our Hawaii refinery.

For the third quarter, the Tesoro Index gained $1.42 per barrel (/bbl) or 17% from a year ago. West Coast benchmark diesel margins were up more than 50% over last year while gasoline margins were down 7%.

The Company realized all of the index gains and more, capturing a gross margin of $13.28/bbl, which was up $3.69/bbl or 38% from a year ago.

Contributing to the Company’s improved performance relative to the index was an increase in conversion unit utilization which resulted in higher clean product yields. In addition, the Company produced more diesel, capturing the stronger distillate margins and ran more Canadian and South American heavy crudes as the discounts for these crudes widened.

“We are pleased with our third quarter results, even with Anacortes down for the period,” said Greg Goff, President and CEO of Tesoro. “During the quarter we saw improvement in distillate margins in our markets similar to what’s been seen across the country. We attribute this to strong distillate exports, improvements in the U.S. manufacturing sector and increased port activity nationwide. Unfortunately, these increases are not being seen in gasoline margins. While gasoline demand has stabilized, high unemployment in California continues to keep gasoline demand weak.”

July 12, 2010

Spectrum Pharma

If you currently hold Spectrum Pharma, and are looking to get out, you can set some limit sells around $ 4.25-$4.30 range.  During a surge it might get filled. On the other hand, you can also sell half at the $4.25 pricing range and hold on  to the other half, as current sentiment on it seems positive and it might climb through beyound the 50 day moving average of $ 4.29 and go forward up till $5 and on.

March 3, 2010

Updates!! on NON-biotech stocks.

Dear Readers,
Sorry we have been out of action on this blog. But that has mainly been because of the fact that we got heavily into options trading on several volatile and/or promising stocks like SFLY, APWR, TSO, HUN etc. With POSITIVE results. 
After SFLY's climb of 17% we have closed out our position. However, there is a significant chance of a small pullback and a new climb again. Considering SLFY is above it's 50 and 200 day moving averages and has made a new 52 wk high, it looks like a good prospect for growth.

APWR has been up and down, but now it looks to be on course for a fresh climb. We still hold open positions in APWR and expect to get out around the $15-$16 range in the near future.

Now, let us speak about the most promising pick for the next few months: TSO. This refiner has begun to climb back from the recent lows in the 11 dollar range, so the timing is good to get back on any short term pullbacks and look to hold it for a 3-5 month range through summer. Barring any major changes in world oil prices, TSO should smartly climb up to the 17-19 range by August-September.

Hunstman Chemicals (HUN), has been a very solid stock and has been posting good earnings and revenues. Expect this stock to have good support and more growth packed in. Add on market down days is about the only piece of wisdom I can share when it comes to HUN.

Lastly if you are thinking of getting into options, then check out these books before you start trading:

1.The Rookie's Guide to Options: The Beginner's Handbook of Trading Equity Options

2. Trading Options at Expiration: Strategies and Models for Winning the Endgame 

NEVER TRADE ON MARGIN. Keep a margin account for easy settlement, but NEVER use the margin to actually trade or hold overnight.

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