Preakness 2013 Picks

Been quite busy last few weeks. Did not even get to analyze or play the derby, except for hoping that Revolutionary did well. And yes, he did well enough to come 3rd.

FREE Equibase Past Performance Chart for Preakness 2013 (pdf)

Now, on to the Preakness analysis. The important thing to note is that Rosario is absolutely red hot as a jockey and I wish him and Orb all the best of luck. They do indeed look really strong. Not sure if they look 3/5 odds strong. But hey, I will probably place a souvenir bet on # 1 Orb. If he wins this and then wins the Belmont to take the Triple crown, those souvenir tickets would mean a lot.

The main thing about the Preakness this year is the reduced field, leaving only 9 horses in the fray, which makes lot of top jockeys available for other horses that had different rides in their last race. Case in point - Mike Smith jumps on board #7 Will Take Charge, a colt who did well in the Rebel Stakes to beat Oxbow. Will take charge had to check in the Derby in the stretch and that hurt his chances. If this horse gets a better trip and his decent workout from 13th May (48.20/4F) indicates he is in good shape, then he is surely worth playing in the exotics like tri/supers and also a good PL/SH bets.

I do not have very high hopes from #6 Oxbow, because if you notice one thing, he briefly came close to the lead in the Derby and then ecked out a 6th. He did not do much in the Arkansas Derby (came 5th). He went to the lead in the stretch in the Rebel and the Risen Star, but got beat in both of those (2nd and 4th respectively). His margin of victory was improving only in his 1m70yd LeComte Stakes among his recent races. So.. what do I do? You are getting odds of 15-1 on the M/L. It does not hurt to throw a PL/SH bet, because this one shows up at almost every race and grinds it out quite well. If his odds remain at bigger than 12-1 he is worth keeping in the exotics/PL/SH pools.

There are two others I like, although their odds may not be that great, but still will remain good odds considering Orb is becoming a prohibitive favorite.
These two are #4 Departing and #5 Mylute.  Mylute is the one I favor between the two, mainly because of the talented jockey Napravnik and also because this horse has done well in good competition. Mylute closed well in the Derby and we don't know if the steadying early on hampered his chances in any way. If he gets a better trip, Mylute could do exceedingly well. So, WP bets are worth placing and if the Show pool looks good throw some in there too.

Departing has gone really well, winning most of his races and the one race he came 3rd, the two horses that beat him, did awfully well in the Kentucky Derby. 

So, to summarize, this is what I will likely bet

• Win bets on #1 Orb (souvenir), #4 Departing (fresh horse), #5 Mylute
  
• PL bets on #5 Mylute, #7 Will Take Charge
  
• PL on #6 Oxbow, if odds at 5 mtp remain above 12-1 on him (and proportionally at place pool).
  
• SH bets on #6 Oxbow, #7 Will Take Charge 

I am absolutely tossing out Goldencents if he is less than 10-1. If he is over 10-1, a small win bet, but I really feel like this is an excuse horse.

Betting basics for Preakness

TO BE HONEST, I am not happy with just a nine horse field in the Preakness, when we could have had up to 14 horses!

Good luck and Happy and Safe Racing

Preakness: Bets just to cash a ticket

The 138th Preakness Stakes, the middle jewel in the Triple Crown Series in American (US) thoroughbred racing, will be held coming Saturday - May 18th, 2013 - at Pimlico in Maryland.

You can get official information from the Preakness Website.

While I have not looked at the full card being offered on that day (a very nice card is being offered over the two days Friday and Saturday), but I thought I would share some thoughts on how to bet the Preakness with a returning Derby winner. 

Of course, it is very common that the Derby winner returns to compete in the Preakness. In the last 25-27 years, Grindstone seems to be the only who did not start at the Preakness after a Derby win.

Statistically, out of 26 starts of returning Derby winners, we have 10 of them going on to win the Preakness.  They also finished 2nd in 7 cases and 3rd in 3 starts. All in all, 20 out of 26 times they ran in the money. So a show bet seems to have a high probability of getting some money back. 

Now let us look at the general trend of the toteboard odds at Preakness.

The Derby winner has gone off as the favorite in 16 out of those 26 starts. In some (3-4) of those 16 starts, they have been odds-on favorites (less than even money), but that is not to say they won or finished on the board in those cases. Some examples of compelling favorites not finishing on the board have been Barbaro (rip),  Fusaichi Pegasus, Street Sense etc.

But, a lot of these Derby winners do run in the money and having said that, their win odds are not so great. But if you just want a thrill of cashing a ticket, then betting the Derby winner to PL/SH and a small bet at Win could be had for all of under ten dollars. $2 Win, $ 3 PL and $5 Show. 

That is about basic betting for now. During the week and after the post position draw on Wednesday, I will present a more detailed analysis of the 14 runners and also try to predict some bettable choices!

Preakness 2012 Replay (Overhead) and how USA, Canada, Mexico connect to IHA

The Preakness 2012 is over and now all sights are firmly set at the Belmont Stakes in the horseracing world (in Northern America at least!), with high hopes on I'll Have Another to pull off a memorable Triple Crown -after over 34 years since Affirmed won in 1978 And what a beautiful way the three countries of the continent connect behind this horse! Congratulations to Mario Guttierez, trainer Doug O'Neill and his team, and to the owner and rest of the connections!

                      Canada - as the owner of the horse is Canadian businessman J. Paul Reddam,  
                      Mexico - as the country of origin for "Marvelous" Mario, the pilot of this superb horse and the original buyer/ Mr. Davila (a neat story about him here) and
                      USA - that's where the Triple Crown happens!

So there is lot of goodwill going and cheering going on from all three places. Below you will find a reply of the Preakness 2012, as an overhead video (courtesy NBC) with analysis from their commentators. I am not allowed to embed it, so I am just pointing you to the link

(it has a 30 sec commercial in the beginning)

Check out this great MSN video: Overhead replay of the Preakness

off topic: BELMONT

My EARLY PICKS for BELMONT (if these horses run) -date stamped - May 23
MUCHO MACHO MAN
SANTIVA
ASTROLOGY or ANIMAL KINGDOM

Mucho Macho Man lost his left front shoe in the Preakness, she said. In the Louisiana Derby, he lost his right front shoe at the start.
At the Fair Grounds, where Mucho Macho Man won the Risen Star and finished third in the Louisiana Derby, he was wearing shoes secured to the hooves in the standard way, with nails. He wore glue-on shoes in the Kentucky Derby, in which he finished third, and Preakness.
“He’s got to be doing something,’’ Ritvo said. “I haven’t had a horse pull a shoe for three or four years, and now I’ve got two in three races. I think he’s snatching himself coming out of the gate. I think he’s so excited to get out of the gate that he’s springing before his front feet are gone. He’s not a nervous horse. It’s got to be something. I’ve got to figure out what happened and when he lost it.”
LINK



http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-winner-shackleford-likely-face-animal-kingdom-again-belmont-stakes

• Mucho macho man lost his right front shoe (fixed with nails) in the Derby. In Preakness he lost his left front shoe (fixed wih glue on). Either way, i think his odds may go down but if his shoe stays on, there is a large chance of him winning the Belmont - in my wild opinion.
• The news shills are not talking much about other horses as of now. It is all about Shackleford,Animal Kingdom etc. I feel that Shackleford being an early leader, may have a disadvantage in the Belmont -as it is the longest course at 1 1/2 miles. Who knows maybe his team might not even run him!
  

Details on Belmont: http://www.belmontstakes.org/belmont-stakes-contenders/

Belmont Facts

Main Course: 1 1/2 Miles
Last Turn to Finish on Main Track: 1,097 feet

Preakness Facts
Main Course: 1 3/16th mile.

Kentucky Derby 
Main Course: 1 1/4 mile