Kentucky Derby 2020 - Picks

DERBY DAY!

Don't think we will see many hats in the stands, but people will probably be doing small scale derby parties with hats at home. Weather looks good so far today.

I have nt been posting picks of late, but it is Kentucky Derby weekend and one of my friends texted me and asked for picks. 

So here goes... (You can bet on Twinspires app or website- Sign up here to get a free $10 bet)

Full list of entries including Jockey, trainer names can be found at the Equibase site. (new window)

 4: Storm the Court (Morning line: 50-1)

This horse has generally been a front running style horse, Can he manage to hold the pace for mile and quarter? We will have to wait and see! Most recenty came 2nd in the LaJolla Handicap and 3rd in the Ohio Derby. He did win the BC Juvenile last year as a 2 year old but since then no major achievements. But since the Derby is later this year (not May but Sep) I want to add him as a wildcard.

 8: South Bend (Morning line: 50-1)

This is a simple no nonsense horse. The trainer is a highly respected trainer Bill Mott and a decent jockey on board.  Has a 2nd in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. While normally it may not be a big thing, you have to realize it was a decent sized field of 13 horses and this horse closed well and was ahead of today's #4 Storm the Court.

 12: Sole Volante - I've got a feeling on this one. (Morning line: 30-1 )

This horse came 2nd in the Grade 2 Tampa Derby in February trailing as the 11th in a field of 12, but then covered ground well to arrive at 2nd placing and was narrowing the gap. Since then this gelding has only won an optional claimer then performed poorly at the Belmont (run at a shortened 1 1/8 miles this year). The extra distance might help the closing style of this horse.

I would just bet this one to win, and a show maybe. Also see the strategy for 15. 

 15: Ny Traffic (Morning line: 20-1)

 this horse had been consistent in top 3 recently even in large fields. The strategy for this horse would be probably be to bet a safe win ($10 bucks?) and, 

also a $1 Exacta with 15 on top, with 4, 8, 12, 16, 17. This underneath. This is risking $5 but the payoff could be nice. 

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16. Honor A.P. (Morning line: 5-1)

This one is only 5-1 and the second favorite, but seems consistent to me. If you want some type of winning ticket, betting across the board on this (Win-Place-Show aka WPS) might be one strategy.

But it's short odds still on him, and of course the race favorite (17: Tiz the Law) will probably go even odds. He is definitely the one to beat, but the Derby is challenging and crowded race and surprising things can always happen! 

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California Chrome's Friends Cheering him - Harris Farms

Stumbled upon a video of most of the people from Harris Farms (horse division) who helped raise California Chrome through the years watching his derby race. This video brings out all the emotions, the nervousness and the pure joy in these people as they see their homegrown colt compete and win the 140th Kentucky Derby.

If you enjoyed watching this feel free to share this post and also follow this blog for more regular updates on all things related to horse racing

That's Three Strikes - Rough Weather Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs - home of the Kentucky Derby is facing some rough weather - and it is not just the rain and wind kind of weather which helps "horses bred for the mud". They could be facing some chills now, with three major developments which seem to show CD's actions in a negative light.

In my personal opinion one of them clearly does show them in negative light. That is the treatment being meted out to Hall of Fame retired jockey Ron Turcotte (link).

There has been a press release by two time derby winning (now wheelchair using) retired jockey Ron Turcotte about the dismal treatment afforded to him at Churchill Downs.

"However, my most recent experiences at the track have tarnished my fond memories of Churchill Downs through the actions, or should I say inaction, of track management who has not provided me with either accommodation or parking access during (Kentucky) Oaks and Derby days. Being confined to a wheelchair since my racing accident in 1978, it is no easy feat to maneuver through the crowds that attend the Derby festivities. It becomes a nearly impossible task when there is virtually no assistance from the track."

Turcotte said that in 2012, despite being the subject of a National Film Board of Canada documentary being filmed at Churchill, he was denied any parking assistance by the track.

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/84712/turcotte-issues-statement-against-churchill#ixzz30OegydzV

Source: Bloodhorse.com article

Further, some race horse owners running their horses in undercard graded stakes races are also speaking out about poor treatment being meted out to them.

What is wrong with this management group? No wonder racing is on the decline. They don’t have any regard for the owners, in my opinion. They are for themselves and the race track as I see it.
Not only do I feel that owners are treated like second class citizens by Churchill Downs, so too are the handicappers and everyday bettors. 

Source: Rick Porter (Fox Hill Farm) http://foxhillfarmstable.com/2014/04/28/churchill-made-an-irresponsible-mistake/

Then there is the the general discontent after the recent takeout increase.

Wagers on Win, Place, and Show were raised from 16% takeout to 17.5% takeout. On exotic wagers, the takeout increased from 19% to 22%. (source)

There is a boycott movement that is underway and vigorous discussions on this takeout increase and its repurcussions on horseplayer behavior (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=112989) and (http://www.horseraceinsider.com/John-Pricci/comments/04242014-horseplayers-to-churchill-downs-and-industry-wake-up)

While Churchill maybe run as an incorporated business, their management of their business model is turning away or infuriating many of their customers and partners, who are key to the business model.

What are your opinions and thoughts on these issues? Feel free to jump in and comment or share this post with others on social media if any of these topics are of interest to you. Keep it civil please.
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Kentucky Oaks - Friday May 2nd

Kentucky Oaks post positions are out.

1—Please Explain, Jose Lezcano, 50-1
2—Ria Antonia, Mike Smith, 10-1
3—Sugar Shock, Calvin Borel, 12-1
4—Rosalind, Joel Rosario, 8-1
5—Thank You Marylou, Julien Leparoux, 30-1
6—Kiss Moon, Victor Espinoza, 30-1
7—Fashion Plate, Gary Stevens, 6-1
8—Aurelia's Belle, Channing Hill, 50-1
9—Unbridled Forever, Robby Albarado, 12-1
10—Empress of Midway, Corey Nakatani, 50-1
11—My Miss Sophia, Javier Castellano, 8-1
12—Got Lucky, John Velazquez, 20-1
13—Untapable, Rosie Napravnik, 4-5

If the Track Condition is  FAST, then the analysis below should hold well.

>> While :13: Untapable is definitely the one to beat, I feel that :4: Rosalind can do very well in this race and even win it. This filly has closed off the pace on multiple occasions and has been close enough at the finish. Friday could be her day - I will take :4: if above 6-1 or Ex box it with :13:

Rosalind is ridden by Joel Rosario is right now the only real contender of value that I see in this field.

The other main contenders who I expect the crowd to bet on heavily would be :7: Fashion Plate and :11: My Miss Sophia. However, there will be at least one big longshot that I am still working on identifying.

2013 Derby Picks

DERBY FIELD ANALYSIS
Here is some analysis of the Kentucky Derby line up for 2013.

"Run for the roses" by colts, geldings (and fillies when they qualify).

Revolutionary (Lifetime chart)

He has definitely shown good improvement and some great fighting qualities in the last two races (his only two stakes races). It has to be noted that he was 4.25 lengths behind Orb, in Orb's maiden breaker race. He has always finished "in the money" (or on the board 1st, 2nd or 3rd position in every race he has run). Calvin Borel, a multiple Kentucky derby winner and a recent hall of fame inductee, will be the jockey for Revolutionary. His trainer is Todd Pletcher, who is one of the top trainers in the game and has several other horses in this Derby.

Orb (Lifetime chart)

Orb has been working out great and he definitely has solid credentials now, after having won the Florida Derby in convincing fashion. Trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey III, Orb will be ridden by currently super hot jockey Joel Rosario. Add to this all the glowing praise from different experts, including hall of fame trainer Baffert's eye.
BUT, Orb will not deliver much value as a betting choice, so in a 19 horse field, if he is lower than 4-1, I don't see much value betting him!

Frac Daddy (Lifetime chart) He made a good run for 2nd in his last race. Anything can happen, especially in the slop.

Charming Kitten has the accomplished and experienced jockey Edgar Prado, who has won at Kentucky Derby before with Barbaro and has ridden other horses to victory in Triple Crown races. If he places Charming Kitten forwardly this one can do well do be in the top 3. post position rules that option out somewhat.

Golden Soul Again, this one has shown good closing moves and improved the gaps while finishing. Definitely worth a pl or sh bet (ie in the exotics).

Oaks and Derby Contenders Past Performance Charts

For the 2013 Kentucky Oaks and Derby, here are the early PP charts..

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/DerbyOaks13PPs.pdf

Early PPs for Derby and Oaks Field 2013

The early past performance charts for kentucky derby and oaks 2013 are out!

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/DerbyOaks13PPs.PDF


Here are some workouts of the Derby contenders. Note that I do like Revolutionary and Verrazano, but I am going through the PPs and crystal ball to figure out other contenders soon!

Revolutionary

Revolutionary has shown immense ability to overcome setbacks and major trip issues and still beat the others in his prep race.

Normandy Invasion

Verrazano

Game on Dude vs Ron the Greek, Charles Town Classic 2013

SATURDAY RACES

CHARLESTOWN CLASSIC 1030pm EST - at Charles Town Tracks

This weekend will bring around the $1.5 million (total prize purse) Charlestown Classic at West Virginia. Set at One and one eighth miles, this Grade II race for horses 4yo and up has a post time of 1030pm EST.

Here is the Equibase entry list for the race.
http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/CT042013USA-EQB.html#RACE12

I predict that Ron the Greek will be ridden aggressively and up close to the pace. As they turn for home, he will show an aggressive turn of foot and a fast closing Caixa Electronica will also compete with him and these two will break away from Game on Dude and finish a length ahead of Game of Dude.

Predicted Finish

Ron the Greek
Caixa Electronica
Game on Dude

The other important races for us this weekend

Illinois Derby 6:15pm EST post time At Hawthorne Racetrack

1. Bells Big Bernie 20-1
2. Dewey Square 8-1
3. Street Spice 20-1
4. For Greater Glory 15-1
5. Ground Transport 8-1
6. Taken by the Storm 15-1
7. Dakota Mac 30-1
8. Abraham 8-1
9. Show Some Magic 6-1
10. Fordubai 20-1
11. Stormin Monarcho 15-1
12. Siete de Oros 5-1
13. Departing 7-2
14. Narvaez 20-1

Predicted:
UPDATE: Longshot in PS --> Street Spice
9. Show Some Magic
12. Siete de Oros
14. Narvaez  (not playing this)

COOLMORE LEXINGTON STAKES  at KEENELAND TRACKS

1 Winning Cause
2 Pick of the Litter
3 River Rocks
4 Hip Four Sixtynine
5 Where's Dominic
6 Sunbean
7 Examen
8 Cerro
9 Wings of Fortune
10 General Election
11 Pure Fun

Predicted:
6. Sunbean
3. River Rocks
11. Pure Fun

Animal Kingdom to Breed in N America for Darley

So, we heard some good news and also some not so good news.

Just read in the news that Graham Motion and Team Valor International are parting ways as Valor hoped that Graham Motion would remain a private trainer, while Graham Motion says he was not ready for that. (Source DRF)

 

The good news which we gleaned from this article is that Dubai World Cup winning Animal Kingdom, will also stand in Kentucky during the North Hemisphere breeding season. Good to hear that a versatile, talented and proven stallion would be continuing his line in North America. The earlier deal would have kept Animal Kingdom in Australia.

Now, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum's Darley stables will house Animal Kingdom in Lexington KY. This will definitely make it easier for north american fans to at least catch a glimpse of this Kentucky Derby/Dubai World Cup champion.

Animal Kingdom, who is in England training for a race at Royal Ascot after last Saturday’s win in the $10 million Dubai World Cup, will remain under Motion’s care until the horse is retired, according to Irwin. Earlier this year, Team Valor sold a majority share in the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner to Arrowfield Stud in Australia, where he is expected to start his stud career this summer for the Southern Hemisphere breeding season. Sheikh Mohammed al-Maktoum’s Darley announced earlier this week that it had purchased a 29 percent interest in the horse and that the horse will stand the Northern Hemisphere breeding season at Darley’s Jonabell Farm in Lexington, Ky. (Source DRF)

Here is the official press release from Darley.

Arrowfield Stud and Team Valor International announced today that Darley has acquired a twenty nine per cent interest in the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup and Grade 1 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. As a result Animal Kingdom will stand in the Northern Hemisphere at Darley’s Jonabell Farm in Lexington, Kentucky.  The son of Leroidesanimaux will stand in the Southern Hemisphere at John Messara's Arrowfield Stud in Australia.

For other information pertaining to visit/doing business with Darley, please use their Contact Us page.

Rebel Stakes: Oaklawn

Rebel Stakes

I am going with CARVE and TREASURY BILL at the top 2.

DEN's LEGACY, OXBOW and DELHOMME will be the choices for the 3-4 positions.

:2: Carve, Based at Oaklawn. Has improved in 2nd start at 8.5f over his first start and did so in a larger field.

:1: Treasury Bill, Has raced only in smaller (6) fields. Starts slow sometimes and this could be an issue in larger fields.

:3: Texas bling, After two good performances at 8f stakes, "bounced" (?) or did not do well at all at 8.5f graded stks. Serious question about class.

:4: Delhomme, he is a Pletcher trainee and Garrett Gomez rides him. Good workouts, did well against good competition at the G2 Remsen (9f) on the lead and now cuts back to 8.5f. Serious win contender.

:5: Hardrock Eleven, except for one good performance as a juvenile at 8.5f, has not done well at distances longer than 7f. No published works after his last place debacle on 23rd Feb. Toss.

:6: Den's Legacy, This one does not have "winner" written over him, but can give others a run for the money and might be a player in the exotics if he fires. Has consistently hit the board (3-2 or 1) in the last 6 starts - all of which have been stakes races. Good workouts in last several weeks. Has been sent here to take a shot a victory.

:7: Will Take Charge, Lukas trainee, other than I dont find anything worthwhile to note here.

:8: Stormy Holiday, did not impress me. toss

:1A: Title contender, will only be a pace contender in my opinion. toss.

:9: Oxbow, this one is definitely promising, but I can't push the button on him at these odds.

:10: Super Ninety Nine. He got lucky last time when nobody pressed him.. Remains to see if this is a versatile horse. at 3/2 ML I cannot make any bets on him.

So finally, post race, we see the amazing D Wayne Lucas grabbing lot of K Derby points here, finishing 1-2 with 
Will Take Charge and Oxbow!

Animal Kingdom (KY Derby 2011 winner) to stand in Australia

Animal Kingdom (the winner of the 2011 edition of the Kentucky Derby by Yum! Brands) will stand in stud in Australia later in 2013, following the acquisition of majority interest in breeding rights by Australia based Arrowfield Stud.

More details on this are available from Bloodhorse.com

We are really happy to see Animal Kingdom being raced further into his 5th year, rather than being retired fast in the Derby winning year itself, like many other horses in the game. His closing kick is something really fun to look forward to. In the Breeder's cup AK did very well to come 2nd in spite of traffic etc. Of course, he was up against Wise Dan - one of the top horses this year! Check out the video below:

Kentucky Derby Changes Selection Method

One of the oldest sports in running (138 years and going strong), the Kentucky Derby (ahem.. presented by Yum Brands as it is usually touted nowadays) is changing its method of selection. It used to winnings from graded stakes of the top 20 horses from over 185 races, but now that system is being changed to a points system from about 36 races.

USA today is covering it in full.

The main goal is also to get 20 horses that are in the best form to qualify for the Derby and reduce chances of one hit wonders or horses that have won big at distances shorter than 1 mile to come into the Derby.

The campaign of races leading up to the Derby is being divided into four phases.

The first is called the Kentucky Derby Prep Season, typically spanning stakes from late September through late February. .

Then follows a "Kentucky Derby Championship Season", which typically will span the 10-week run-up to the Derby. The phase highlights mostly traditional prep races.

That's followed by the most important phase of the Kentucky Derby Championship Season. The races in this stage encompass the biggest events: the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Toyota Blue Grass and Louisiana Derby, while also including the $2 million U.A.E. Derby in Dubai. Those races will offer a 100-40-20-10 point scale.

Finally, there's a last chance "wild-card" setup which features Keeneland's Lexington Stakes, two weeks before the Derby, and Churchill Downs' opening-night Derby Trial, a week before the Kentucky Derby.

What do you think? Add your comments on whether you think this is a good thing or bad thing or "change is always good" ..