September 5, 2020

Kentucky Derby 2020 - Picks

DERBY DAY!

Don't think we will see many hats in the stands, but people will probably be doing small scale derby parties with hats at home. Weather looks good so far today.

I have nt been posting picks of late, but it is Kentucky Derby weekend and one of my friends texted me and asked for picks. 

So here goes... (You can bet on Twinspires app or website- Sign up here to get a free $10 bet)

Full list of entries including Jockey, trainer names can be found at the Equibase site. (new window)

 4: Storm the Court (Morning line: 50-1)

This horse has generally been a front running style horse, Can he manage to hold the pace for mile and quarter? We will have to wait and see! Most recenty came 2nd in the LaJolla Handicap and 3rd in the Ohio Derby. He did win the BC Juvenile last year as a 2 year old but since then no major achievements. But since the Derby is later this year (not May but Sep) I want to add him as a wildcard.

 8: South Bend (Morning line: 50-1)

This is a simple no nonsense horse. The trainer is a highly respected trainer Bill Mott and a decent jockey on board.  Has a 2nd in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. While normally it may not be a big thing, you have to realize it was a decent sized field of 13 horses and this horse closed well and was ahead of today's #4 Storm the Court.

 12: Sole Volante - I've got a feeling on this one. (Morning line: 30-1 )

This horse came 2nd in the Grade 2 Tampa Derby in February trailing as the 11th in a field of 12, but then covered ground well to arrive at 2nd placing and was narrowing the gap. Since then this gelding has only won an optional claimer then performed poorly at the Belmont (run at a shortened 1 1/8 miles this year). The extra distance might help the closing style of this horse.

I would just bet this one to win, and a show maybe. Also see the strategy for 15. 

 15: Ny Traffic (Morning line: 20-1)

 this horse had been consistent in top 3 recently even in large fields. The strategy for this horse would be probably be to bet a safe win ($10 bucks?) and, 
also a $1 Exacta with 15 on top, with 4, 8, 12, 16, 17. This underneath. This is risking $5 but the payoff could be nice. 

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16. Honor A.P. (Morning line: 5-1)

This one is only 5-1 and the second favorite, but seems consistent to me. If you want some type of winning ticket, betting across the board on this (Win-Place-Show aka WPS) might be one strategy.


But it's short odds still on him, and of course the race favorite (17: Tiz the Law) will probably go even odds. He is definitely the one to beat, but the Derby is challenging and crowded race and surprising things can always happen! 

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 Have fun betting! Thank you!!

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