Upgrade AFFX MDCO YMI

We believe that Affymetrix is a potential takeover target in view of the general consolidation in the instrument/analytical sector. A potential takeover price would be about

YMI biosciences YMI, reported orphan drug designation being granted to its JAK1/2 inhibitors in Europe. while the stock was up in pre market, it has been taken down after market open - maybe based on profit taking/smart ways of lowering price and getting in by interested Wall st firms. These are the firms that release PR upgrades and downgrades to sell or buy respectively.


MDCO has been seeing improving volume and price action and if you check earlier posts on this blog (using the label) you will note the takeover speculation possibility.

SUPG (now ASTX) is seeing suddenly increased volume on the last day of the month. I don't know if that is window dressing or real action

For those who want to see real time price action, check out level II quotes for free at:

http://www.stockshaven.com/level-ii-quotes

Racing Updates

So my weekend hobby is turning to be Horse racing and playing the odds.

This is  how it worked out this weekend.

I betted on five different races:
Came out tops in 3 of them. In one race, I lost some money and in one I just made my money back. Overall, my bankroll improved slightly, but more importantly I learned some key lessons about not playing too many exotics/not diversyfying too much and about not meddling with good analysis at the last moment. They key race was of course, the Met mile at the Belmont.


I had bet $3 dollars (PLACE) on Rodman in the Met mile classic - but scratched the bet at the last few minutes - and missed out on a good good payout. :(. Oh well.

I did bet a Place on Tizway too in the same race and that paid good! My place on exotic box using Caixa & Aikenite as well as a Win bet on Caixa did not pay :( . Aw shucks.

Why I went LONG on VRTX Pharma (Verrtex)

Got approval for Hepatitis C drug.

Good pipeline on Cystic fibrosis root cause treatment - Ataluren VX770. NDA filing probably in late 2011.
VX770 also may address other mutations etc.

VX809 in Phase II. Vertex receive a five year grant of $75 million for VX661 studies.

I have a gut feeling that there may be some surprise findings (positive) down the line which would help more. (Source - Chemical Engineering News)

Just like my gut feeling on Astrology and Shackleford paid off in a money double at the Preakness. (I also betted on Animal Kingdom). Note that I bet "show" on all 3 - a very conservative bet. Even still I made a double trying horse race wagering the first time ever. (results)
Shackleford paid $27.20, $10.20 and $6.80.
Animal Kingdom returned $4.20 and $3.60. Astrology paid $8 to show.

Read more: http://www.centredaily.com/2011/05/21/2727378/shackleford-wins-preakness-animal.html#ixzz1NBrkZPBe

Disclosure - Note: I also bet on Mucho Macho Man to place, but I lost all my money on that one. In all, 3 out of 4 horses were in the money - and I feeling GOOD.

off topic: BELMONT

My EARLY PICKS for BELMONT (if these horses run) -date stamped - May 23
MUCHO MACHO MAN
SANTIVA
ASTROLOGY or ANIMAL KINGDOM

Mucho Macho Man lost his left front shoe in the Preakness, she said. In the Louisiana Derby, he lost his right front shoe at the start.
At the Fair Grounds, where Mucho Macho Man won the Risen Star and finished third in the Louisiana Derby, he was wearing shoes secured to the hooves in the standard way, with nails. He wore glue-on shoes in the Kentucky Derby, in which he finished third, and Preakness.
“He’s got to be doing something,’’ Ritvo said. “I haven’t had a horse pull a shoe for three or four years, and now I’ve got two in three races. I think he’s snatching himself coming out of the gate. I think he’s so excited to get out of the gate that he’s springing before his front feet are gone. He’s not a nervous horse. It’s got to be something. I’ve got to figure out what happened and when he lost it.”
LINK



http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-winner-shackleford-likely-face-animal-kingdom-again-belmont-stakes

• Mucho macho man lost his right front shoe (fixed with nails) in the Derby. In Preakness he lost his left front shoe (fixed wih glue on). Either way, i think his odds may go down but if his shoe stays on, there is a large chance of him winning the Belmont - in my wild opinion.
• The news shills are not talking much about other horses as of now. It is all about Shackleford,Animal Kingdom etc. I feel that Shackleford being an early leader, may have a disadvantage in the Belmont -as it is the longest course at 1 1/2 miles. Who knows maybe his team might not even run him!
  

Details on Belmont: http://www.belmontstakes.org/belmont-stakes-contenders/

Belmont Facts

Main Course: 1 1/2 Miles
Last Turn to Finish on Main Track: 1,097 feet

Preakness Facts
Main Course: 1 3/16th mile.

Kentucky Derby 
Main Course: 1 1/4 mile

ASCO Abstracts out

INCYTE Corporation - a small molecule cancer drug research company - has four abstracts in ASCO 2011. (link)

Incyte has collaborative agreements with Pfizer PFE, Eli Lilly LLY and Novartis NVS.

The abstract of highest current interest is the one on which Incyte is working with Novartis. (a Phase III trial).

Supergen has two abstracts.. I was kinda surprised (link) and phase I clinical study of an oral inhibitor

Ok, more information will be added during the evening. Have to do AH trading now..ciao

Vical has posted a very clear abstract on what they have done/found/plan to do.

Abstract:
Background: Allovectin is a plasmid-based immunotherapy expressing HLA-B7 and β2 microglobulin genes designed to stimulate both local and systemic anti-tumor responses. In a phase II single-arm study, VCL-1005-208 (2 mg, intralesional injection in 127 subjects), overall response rate (ORR) was 11.8% and median overall survival (OS) was 18.8 months. Median duration of response was 13.8 months and all responses were durable (> 6 months). A subsequent phase III trial (LX01-315) recently completed enrollment of 390 pts in more than 90 sites in 15 countries. Subjects in phase II with characteristics corresponding to those in this phase III study (chemonaïve with a single lesion injected) had an ORR that was 17% and median OS was 22.5 months. Methods: A time-dependent covariate (TDC) analysis with the Cox proportional hazards model (SAS/STAT PROC PHREG) was used to evaluate the relationship between a time-varying covariate (responder status) to survival in the phase II study. The Cox model analysis combines these results across times (one time point per death) to yield a single p-value for the prognostic significance of responder status. Results: In our analysis of the VCL-1005-208 data, each patient had a single covariate, responder status that permanently switched from 1 to 0 when a non-responder became a responder. The single covariate approach tested the hypothesis that responder status predicted survival. The resulting hazard ratio for the TDC was 4.13 (95% CI: 1.67-10.25, score test p-value=0.002), which is relatively large and highly significant. A simpler analysis, using responder status as if it were a baseline covariate, gave a hazard ratio of 4.82 (95% CI 1.95-11.89, p-value<0.001). The TDC analysis indicates that in a small, open-label phase II trial, responder status strongly predicted survival. Analysis of two other trials (using 10 mcg DNA), VCL-1005-205 (phase II) and VCL-1005-301 (phase III), showed similar results. Conclusions: In three Allovectin melanoma trials, response was a strongly significant predictor of survival and may serve as a marker of clinical benefit for this novel class of cancer immunotherapeutic agents.

Celldex Announces Vague Dilution

Celldex (CLDX) filed a shelf registration to issue more shares with no numbers placed inside the document, in what I consider to be extremely 'odd' behavior and a highly risky practice. They have had some 575,000 new shares issued via Cantor Fitzgerald from January through recently raising about $ 2.4 Million dollars. Note that they had up to 5 million shares to sell until May 16, 2011 and claim to have sold only 575,000.

Update: This morning (on May 18) Celldex issued a new release stating the price of the offering at $3.15 - a huge discount to the market price of $3.88. Link


Among many risk factors listed the one useful item for biotech/pharma investors is the clear listing of their competitors. Maybe one could spread your bets across the field at other GOOD companies too!

We have many competitors in our field, and they may develop technologies that make ours obsolete.

Biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and therapeutics are rapidly evolving fields in which scientific and technological developments are expected to continue at a rapid pace. We have many competitors in the U.S. and abroad. The competitors for which we are aware have initiated a Phase 3 study or have obtained marketing approval for a potentially competitive drug include Alexion, Agenus, Baxter, Dendreon, Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline, ImmunoGen, Merck, Northwest Biotherapeutics, Pfizer, Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, Seattle Genetics, and Takeda. Our success depends upon our ability to develop and maintain a competitive position in the product categories and technologies on which we focus. Many of our competitors have greater capabilities, experience and financial resources than we do. 


Disclosure: I am long Aug $5 calls and I was debating about shorting yesterday for a short term gain - but I did NOT.haha, missed out on this opportunity!

ACTC Announces Phase 1/2 Clinical Trial Site

Advanced Cell Technologies (a STEM cell research company) ACTC.OB announced in a press release about the selection of site for clinical trials Phase 1/2 for its macular degeneration (treatment) product.
Sentiment: Positive
More details

From Yahoo Finance:

Press Release Source: Advanced Cell Technology, Inc. On Monday May 16, 2011, 8:30 am

MARLBOROUGH, Mass., May 16, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Advanced Cell Technology, Inc. ("ACT"; OTCBB: ACTC), a leader in the field of regenerative medicine, announced today that the Casey Eye Institute (CEI) at Oregon Health & Science University (OHSU) in Portland, Ore., has received institutional review board (IRB) approval to be a site for its Phase 1/2 human clinical trial for Stargardt's Macular Dystrophy (SMD) using retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells derived from human embryonic stem cells (hESCs). The Phase 1/2 trial will be prospective, open-label study designed to determine the safety and tolerability of the RPE cells following sub-retinal transplantation into patients with SMD.
"We are pleased that OHSU's Casey Eye Institute has agreed to participate as a site for this study that should help us better understand the role that RPE cells can play in the treatment of SMD," said Gary Rabin, interim chairman and CEO of ACT.  "This agreement marks another milestone in our history of successful collaboration with CEI on our RPE program.  The promising data from the collaboration, begun in 2007, helped pave the way for this trial, and we look forward to starting it in the coming weeks."
"We are honored to have been designated as a site for this groundbreaking clinical trial," said
Peter J. Francis, M.D., Ph.D., Associate Professor of Ophthalmology and Co-Director of the Oregon Retinal Degeneration Center at the Casey Eye Institute. "Our prior collaborative projects with ACT on its RPE program have generated promising results, and we are pleased to be a part of this trial for an exciting potential new treatment for SMD, using hESC-derived RPE cells."
Additional details on this study, for which the Jules Stein Institute at the University of California, Los Angeles has also received IRB approval, can be found on http://clinicaltrials.gov/; ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01345006.

MDCO new position (speculative)

The Medicines Company is one stock which we had followed for long time through its ups and downs. Recently MDCO hired John Kelly (formely VP controller at Wyeth - which got acquired by Pfizer in 2009). Soon after J Kelly retired from Pfizer-Wyeth.

Interestingly enough, recently (Apr 28, 2011) John Kelly has been appointed to the Board of Directors of the Medicines Company. Could this hint toward a possible takeover being in the works? Maybe/maybe not. but then, this is why its called a speculative position.

MDCO did report good results recently (Link) where it reported 64 c eps vs an analyst estimate of 40 c/eps.

Do your own due diligence. Good luck.

Disclosure: long MDCO since 16.15/share.

Moody's, Standard and Poor's and McGraw Hill are all OPINION BLOGGERS now

Well, i don't know if they blog or not, but the so-called ratings given by all these agencies is merely as First amendment expression. So they are about as close to poets, singers and other artists if you will. Only in this case, by hiding under the first amendment umbrella, all these rating agencies are clearly telling us that they are as responsible and credible as your regular internet blogger.

Check out the lawsuit dismissal news on Yahoo finance.

 I am not short on Moody's only because I don't have enough money to go short on this when I can short other beautiful cases like St. Joe's etc.
or flip INCY YMI etc for easy 50% gains..

As always, all opinions listed here are covered by the 1st Amendment and nothing is a recommendation to buy or sell. ;) ;) Cha ching,.

New Position (long) OIIM

A source that speaks the truth almost every occasion provided me with a new tip- OIIM (On2micro Semiconductor ADR).

Initiated Long position @ 6.88 today. The company beat consensus estimates on earnings and revenue.

Unusual After Hours Volume in BMY

This is the first week of the new quarter, Pfizer merely lowered its forecast and the stock (PFE) took a hit (down ~3%), Bayer AG CEO makes some general comments on "Merger of Equals" and what we see is unusual is the after hours volume of over 9 million (9,059,303) for BMY (bristol myers squibb) on a day where the company's stock already saw a healthy 1% rise on a flat/down day for the broad market (DJI flat, SPX down .34%).
BMY average daily volume is
Now whether BMY's Ah trades are fueled by specualtion or rotation of PFE money into BMY or just a quarterly rotation into a more healthier BMY - is all up for speculation. But one thing positive for BMY seems that it has lot of momentum going forward.

Nasdaq After hours

No positions in any of the mentioned stocks. Might add BMY on pullback.


UPDATE: Suspicious trades cancelled by NASDAQ. https://research.scottrade.com/qnr/Stocks/Article?dockey=100-124r6288-1

Suspicious Off-Hour Trades Cancelled By Nasdaq, NYSE

Now - ITR via Comtex

InvestrendMay 4, 2011 (FinancialWire) ("The Small Cap News Leader" http://www.financialwire.net/) -- Nasdaq OMX (NASDAQ: NDAQ) and NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) are reportedly reviewing as many as 50 health care trades made after the close of trading Tuesday. Trades in Aetna (NYSE: AET), Abbot Laboratories, Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY), Pfizer (NYSE PFE), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and other companies reportedly were canceled or seemed potentially erroneous and were being scrutinized.
Nasdaq reportedly canceled some of the trades, which had led to spikes in the after-hours trading of several stocks.
=========
FinancialWire(tm) is a fully independent, proprietary news wire service. FinancialWire(tm) is not a press release service, and receives no compensation from subject entities, companies, equities, or representatives thereof, for its news, opinions or distributions. Contact FinancialWire(tm) directly via inquiries@financialwire.net. Copyright (C) MMXI, FinancialWire(tm); All rights reserved.

http://www.financialwire.net

General Notes (CGNX CRR RSTI INCY BG TTM)

There is a guy named James Stewart that wrote about this and some other stocks in Mar/April..

he had also listed CRR (carbo ceramics) Rofin-Sinar RSTI CGNX and few others..

I am kicking myself for not getting into CGNX some days back.. of course it is risky around earnings but then rewards are big.. oh well..

separately i did my own analysis on LYB, made profits between Apr 10 to Apr 28 but did not  hold it through earnings (chickened out).. Big mistake again.. lol.

only winners I am holding are Bunge BG and INCY

on a side note, I went long on TTM today @ 26.15. Let us see how this plays out

Osama Dead - Futures up BIG! Japan Up BIG

World markets are rejoicing (Nikkei went up by atleast 80 points (I was looking at it earlier today and it was at 70 then it went up to 150). DJI futures went up from the 50's to 114. Stocks will be mostly likely be up tomorrow!! Monday!
http://bloom.bg/ccg3B3
Markets are going to open big tomorrow. Great for traders who play the spike or hold options already