Celldex Announces Vague Dilution

Celldex (CLDX) filed a shelf registration to issue more shares with no numbers placed inside the document, in what I consider to be extremely 'odd' behavior and a highly risky practice. They have had some 575,000 new shares issued via Cantor Fitzgerald from January through recently raising about $ 2.4 Million dollars. Note that they had up to 5 million shares to sell until May 16, 2011 and claim to have sold only 575,000.

Update: This morning (on May 18) Celldex issued a new release stating the price of the offering at $3.15 - a huge discount to the market price of $3.88. Link


Among many risk factors listed the one useful item for biotech/pharma investors is the clear listing of their competitors. Maybe one could spread your bets across the field at other GOOD companies too!

We have many competitors in our field, and they may develop technologies that make ours obsolete.

Biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and therapeutics are rapidly evolving fields in which scientific and technological developments are expected to continue at a rapid pace. We have many competitors in the U.S. and abroad. The competitors for which we are aware have initiated a Phase 3 study or have obtained marketing approval for a potentially competitive drug include Alexion, Agenus, Baxter, Dendreon, Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline, ImmunoGen, Merck, Northwest Biotherapeutics, Pfizer, Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, Seattle Genetics, and Takeda. Our success depends upon our ability to develop and maintain a competitive position in the product categories and technologies on which we focus. Many of our competitors have greater capabilities, experience and financial resources than we do. 


Disclosure: I am long Aug $5 calls and I was debating about shorting yesterday for a short term gain - but I did NOT.haha, missed out on this opportunity!

Changes in Portfolio

Some of my recent picks were listed here.
Closed out of BMY after holding through ex-div date and moderate profit. Reason: feel jittery about company's overall accounting risk wrt employee turnover and uncertainly on plavix. Might initiate a small option position (long call) to follow the company with lower risk.

CLDX: closed out of Apr $4 calls as well as a short term stock trade for 5% profit (held 2 days). However since CLDX seems to be holding well at the 200 day average of 4.25, I rentered into CLDX in a long position by buying Aug $5 calls.


Reduced holdings in DUSA to make cash for some other moves. However, maybe it was nt a smart play as DUSA climbs relentlessly!

Closed out of SUPG stock

Celldex - Why it's moving again and what's in store?

After being "let go" by Pfizer last year, the stock has seen several lows and then seems to be picking itself up again. This article seeks to discuss the potential for Celldex with its current trials/pipeline etc. Any input from other knowledgeable folks/traders etc appreciated.

Rindopepimut (CDX-110): Clinical Program (source:http://www.celldextherapeutics.com/wt/page/cdx_110)

Rindopepimut (CDX-110) is an immunotherapy that targets the tumor specific molecule called EGFRvIII, a functional variant of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), a protein that has been well validated as a target for cancer therapy.

A list of upcoming events are normally shown here.

I am going to be adding more here in collaboration with inputs from Yahoo message board members and other pharma friends of mine.

Recent picks, climbing positions and updates

Stockgage recently closed some positions and then inititated some:

New additions are: BMY, LAVA options.

Closed positions in profit: #LAVA

Closed positions at small loss: URRE, #MENT (gasp!)


Old Positions Looking up: #CLDX #SUPG

Looking at new picks: RSTI CGNX

There is some speculation on the street that MENT might make a bid for LAVA around 560 million. Seems like a lowball offer to me. But, it will be fun to see CDNS jump into the picture too then!!
If you want to read about all these MENT LAVA CDNS SNPS Apache, read Semiwiki articles <<


St JOE's Real Estate just rented out some land for up to 20 (yes TWENTY years) for a sum of $ 55 million. The big question then is --> when does the timber get harvested. When does development begin, when do the real profits from real estate show up? This $ 55 million would just add to the balance sheet to make things look nicer. I think I might short this one!
Update:  I have finally initiated Jan 2012 $17.50 put positions in JOE. Let us see how this plays out!
Old adage: buy the rumor, sell the news.

Disclaimer: None of these are recommendations to buy or sell equities/options/investment etc

Recent Buys: March 9-16

Here are stockgage's recent buys:

Speculative pharma buys:  

DUSA - solid earnings, potential for growth good. Bought after earnings when stock fell a little bit due to (possible) improper trading/profit taking pattern. Called  @3.89-4.04 range.
Added more  @ 4.17. Initiated on March 10th 2011

SUPG - Company reported good earnings. Also, noticed recent change in director compensation/involuntary termination etc. Almost seems like poison pill/takeover protection clause. Speculation of GSK or other big pharma attempting a buy is reasonable. Went long ~2.90 range. March 11th 2011.

CLDX: Pure speculation. although company earnings were good!

Panic Buys (Market panics, we buy): March 16th 2011

URRE - (Went long Oct 2.50 options) @ stock 1.65. Lot of specuative trading going on in this stock. Huge selling on Mon/Tuesday followed by buying and shorting/short covering - everything happening. Once the dust clears and regular business information comes back, it has chance to turn a winner.

DNN  Market panics we buy). Same analysis as URRE above. Denison is a more reliable business. Company managed recent round of financing. If India and China continue growth in their nuclear sectors, prospects favorable.

CSCO May 20 calls. Initiated in mid March 2011. We will see what happens. Last time we initiated CSCO calls in December they paid off very well by early Feb - and a good thing we exited before earnings.

Takeover Speculation Buys:

MENT: After Icahn's fake bid and realignment of big shareholders it is a wait and watch game. Initiated @15.5

LAVA: A higher change of this company being taken over by one of the players in the EDA market. Initiated@ 6.30.

Conviction/Solid Prospect Buys

NOTHING in the Stock market is solid. Please don't be fooled by the language used by GS unless you have millions with them and they send you secret coded messages with buy signals.

TECH BUY LIST
AKAM or its competitors (Limelight, LVLT).. which one would soar or be bought out soon.. Any suggestions? Please comment
Update: went long on June/Sep out of money calls of LVLT and LLNW. Went long AKAM @35.19 - on March 16, 2011

Akamai is a fundamentally well managed company performing much better than its peers. Check out the data on the margins below. So it is a good business. Especially with the valuations being knocked back down to current levels, it is an attractive buy. AKAM doesn't pay dividends though. Data source; Scottrade

Profitability	AKAM	AKAM Peers	Industry Average
Gross Margin (TTM)	70.36%	57.02%	39.25%
Operating Margin (TTM)	24.81%	-22.46%	-6,039.17%
Pretax Margin (TTM)	25.63%	-38.56%	-6,844.29%
Net Profit Margin (TTM)	16.73%	-40.14%	-6,843.02%
Valuation	AKAM	AKAM Peers	Industry Average
P/E excluding extraordinary items (TTM)	39.6x	0.0x	0.0x
P/E Normalized (MRFY)	39.6x	21.7x	52.1x
P/Sales (TTM)	6.5x	2.2x	864.1x
P/Tangible book (TTM)	4.0x	13.3x	15.7x
P/Cash Flow (TTM)	21.3x	17.1x	32.2x
Financial Strength	AKAM	AKAM Peers	Industry Average
Current Ratio (MRQ)	5.91	1.32	3.66
Quick Ratio (MRQ)	--	0.43	3.01
LT Debt/Equity (MRQ)	0.00	2.06	0.46
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ)	0.00	1.51	0.67
Payout Ratio (TTM)	0.00	0.00	61.94
Management Effectiveness	AKAM	AKAM Peers	Industry Average
Return on Assets (TTM)	7.71%	-37.39%	-248.85%
Return on Equity (TTM)	8.74%	-17.02%	-184.51%
Return on Investments (TTM)	8.63%	-8.51%	-2,605.35%
Growth	AKAM	AKAM Peers	Industry Average
Sales (5Yr)	29.31%	14.26%	14.03%
Earnings Per Share (EPS)(TTM)	15.41%	-6.46%	-320.94%
Dividend Growth (5Yr)	--	0.00%	13.79

Celldex Turns Positive

March 3, 2011 8am:
Celldex Therapeutics inc (CLDX) reported positive earnings this morning. On a non GAAP basis, the company reported net income of .71c basic earnings/share for fourth quarter of 2010 compared to a loss (.41) per share for fourth quarter of 2009.

EARNINGS

Press Release on Celldex investor relations website

The stock is trading UP ~ 2.8% in premarket at 4.30. CLDX closed at 4.18 on March 2,2011. With a positive market response this stock has lot of room to run.

New positions Initiated (FTEK), Added CLDX

February 17, 2011

Initiated new long position:
Fuel Tech Inc. FTEK @ 8.02

Added to CLDX call options when
Celldex Therapeutics, Inc CLDX equity was at 3.58

Celldex sees a Spike

Celldex is seeing some bullish action today with a volume spike (~10k shares) during the day.

This was accompanied by a rise in option volume with over 90 march $4 calls being traded and large open interest in $4 and $5 march calls. A point of concern however is that there seems to be large Ask vs bid for the calls - so it might indicate a large stock buyer trying to lower the cost by selling costs.
CLDX is reporting earnings early March.

Disclosure: Long CLDX

Celldex Vaccine Meets Midstage Goal - Expect Sharp Rise in Share Price

Celldex Therapeutics Inc (CLDX) said its experimental vaccine for the the most common type of brain cancer met the main goal of extending survival time for patients without a progression of the disease in a mid-stage trial.


The company's injectable CDX-110 is designed to treat glioblastoma, the most common and aggressive type of brain cancer. It extended survival in a trial of 65 brain cancer patients.


The company plans a larger, clinical trial in the second half of next year. As a trader or as a long term position maker, one should focus on acquiring in the $4.50 to $5 range during pullbacks and then holding steady for 2-3 years. Initiate small positions and stay put. Also, be sure to set your mental loss tolerance well before you put money in.

STOCK WATCH: SNTS CLDX INCY ISIS

Watch out for these pharma/biotech stocks to show increasing activity in the next couple of months.

SNTS: Has fair amount of cash on hand ($100 million), low debt, great pipeline and good revenue (2009- $180 million). The company also has a low float so any positive action would trigger large increases in price due to short covering. Also the possibility of a takeover is quite high.

CLDX: Although PFE snapped ties with CLDX, there is a likelihood that some other pharma company might snap it up! They have sufficient cash on hand to go forward for now. (speculative play - depending on their trials etc)

INCY: This stock has been doing quite well on a technical basis and performing on its own right as a pharma company. Look to INCY climbing after earnings and also to around well over $25 by the end of the year.

ISIS: Receiving payments and royalties on a regular basis, ISIS has been a steady performer, with recent partnerships with  GSK and also (Regulus with Sanofi) ISIS is a strong player in the mRNA market. ISIS did two positive Phase 3 studies of mipomersen in the past year and once that drug (Sold by Genzyme) gets marketing approval, the royalty payments would increase. For technical traders, if ISIS breaks 10 and holds, then there can be significant upside.