Upgrade AFFX MDCO YMI

We believe that Affymetrix is a potential takeover target in view of the general consolidation in the instrument/analytical sector. A potential takeover price would be about

YMI biosciences YMI, reported orphan drug designation being granted to its JAK1/2 inhibitors in Europe. while the stock was up in pre market, it has been taken down after market open - maybe based on profit taking/smart ways of lowering price and getting in by interested Wall st firms. These are the firms that release PR upgrades and downgrades to sell or buy respectively.


MDCO has been seeing improving volume and price action and if you check earlier posts on this blog (using the label) you will note the takeover speculation possibility.

SUPG (now ASTX) is seeing suddenly increased volume on the last day of the month. I don't know if that is window dressing or real action

For those who want to see real time price action, check out level II quotes for free at:

http://www.stockshaven.com/level-ii-quotes

Racing Updates

So my weekend hobby is turning to be Horse racing and playing the odds.

This is  how it worked out this weekend.

I betted on five different races:
Came out tops in 3 of them. In one race, I lost some money and in one I just made my money back. Overall, my bankroll improved slightly, but more importantly I learned some key lessons about not playing too many exotics/not diversyfying too much and about not meddling with good analysis at the last moment. They key race was of course, the Met mile at the Belmont.


I had bet $3 dollars (PLACE) on Rodman in the Met mile classic - but scratched the bet at the last few minutes - and missed out on a good good payout. :(. Oh well.

I did bet a Place on Tizway too in the same race and that paid good! My place on exotic box using Caixa & Aikenite as well as a Win bet on Caixa did not pay :( . Aw shucks.

Why I went LONG on VRTX Pharma (Verrtex)

Got approval for Hepatitis C drug.

Good pipeline on Cystic fibrosis root cause treatment - Ataluren VX770. NDA filing probably in late 2011.
VX770 also may address other mutations etc.

VX809 in Phase II. Vertex receive a five year grant of $75 million for VX661 studies.

I have a gut feeling that there may be some surprise findings (positive) down the line which would help more. (Source - Chemical Engineering News)

Just like my gut feeling on Astrology and Shackleford paid off in a money double at the Preakness. (I also betted on Animal Kingdom). Note that I bet "show" on all 3 - a very conservative bet. Even still I made a double trying horse race wagering the first time ever. (results)
Shackleford paid $27.20, $10.20 and $6.80.
Animal Kingdom returned $4.20 and $3.60. Astrology paid $8 to show.

Read more: http://www.centredaily.com/2011/05/21/2727378/shackleford-wins-preakness-animal.html#ixzz1NBrkZPBe

Disclosure - Note: I also bet on Mucho Macho Man to place, but I lost all my money on that one. In all, 3 out of 4 horses were in the money - and I feeling GOOD.

off topic: BELMONT

My EARLY PICKS for BELMONT (if these horses run) -date stamped - May 23
MUCHO MACHO MAN
SANTIVA
ASTROLOGY or ANIMAL KINGDOM

Mucho Macho Man lost his left front shoe in the Preakness, she said. In the Louisiana Derby, he lost his right front shoe at the start.
At the Fair Grounds, where Mucho Macho Man won the Risen Star and finished third in the Louisiana Derby, he was wearing shoes secured to the hooves in the standard way, with nails. He wore glue-on shoes in the Kentucky Derby, in which he finished third, and Preakness.
“He’s got to be doing something,’’ Ritvo said. “I haven’t had a horse pull a shoe for three or four years, and now I’ve got two in three races. I think he’s snatching himself coming out of the gate. I think he’s so excited to get out of the gate that he’s springing before his front feet are gone. He’s not a nervous horse. It’s got to be something. I’ve got to figure out what happened and when he lost it.”
LINK



http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-winner-shackleford-likely-face-animal-kingdom-again-belmont-stakes

• Mucho macho man lost his right front shoe (fixed with nails) in the Derby. In Preakness he lost his left front shoe (fixed wih glue on). Either way, i think his odds may go down but if his shoe stays on, there is a large chance of him winning the Belmont - in my wild opinion.
• The news shills are not talking much about other horses as of now. It is all about Shackleford,Animal Kingdom etc. I feel that Shackleford being an early leader, may have a disadvantage in the Belmont -as it is the longest course at 1 1/2 miles. Who knows maybe his team might not even run him!
  

Details on Belmont: http://www.belmontstakes.org/belmont-stakes-contenders/

Belmont Facts

Main Course: 1 1/2 Miles
Last Turn to Finish on Main Track: 1,097 feet

Preakness Facts
Main Course: 1 3/16th mile.

Kentucky Derby 
Main Course: 1 1/4 mile

ASCO Abstracts out

INCYTE Corporation - a small molecule cancer drug research company - has four abstracts in ASCO 2011. (link)

Incyte has collaborative agreements with Pfizer PFE, Eli Lilly LLY and Novartis NVS.

The abstract of highest current interest is the one on which Incyte is working with Novartis. (a Phase III trial).

Supergen has two abstracts.. I was kinda surprised (link) and phase I clinical study of an oral inhibitor

Ok, more information will be added during the evening. Have to do AH trading now..ciao

Vical has posted a very clear abstract on what they have done/found/plan to do.

Abstract:
Background: Allovectin is a plasmid-based immunotherapy expressing HLA-B7 and β2 microglobulin genes designed to stimulate both local and systemic anti-tumor responses. In a phase II single-arm study, VCL-1005-208 (2 mg, intralesional injection in 127 subjects), overall response rate (ORR) was 11.8% and median overall survival (OS) was 18.8 months. Median duration of response was 13.8 months and all responses were durable (> 6 months). A subsequent phase III trial (LX01-315) recently completed enrollment of 390 pts in more than 90 sites in 15 countries. Subjects in phase II with characteristics corresponding to those in this phase III study (chemonaïve with a single lesion injected) had an ORR that was 17% and median OS was 22.5 months. Methods: A time-dependent covariate (TDC) analysis with the Cox proportional hazards model (SAS/STAT PROC PHREG) was used to evaluate the relationship between a time-varying covariate (responder status) to survival in the phase II study. The Cox model analysis combines these results across times (one time point per death) to yield a single p-value for the prognostic significance of responder status. Results: In our analysis of the VCL-1005-208 data, each patient had a single covariate, responder status that permanently switched from 1 to 0 when a non-responder became a responder. The single covariate approach tested the hypothesis that responder status predicted survival. The resulting hazard ratio for the TDC was 4.13 (95% CI: 1.67-10.25, score test p-value=0.002), which is relatively large and highly significant. A simpler analysis, using responder status as if it were a baseline covariate, gave a hazard ratio of 4.82 (95% CI 1.95-11.89, p-value<0.001). The TDC analysis indicates that in a small, open-label phase II trial, responder status strongly predicted survival. Analysis of two other trials (using 10 mcg DNA), VCL-1005-205 (phase II) and VCL-1005-301 (phase III), showed similar results. Conclusions: In three Allovectin melanoma trials, response was a strongly significant predictor of survival and may serve as a marker of clinical benefit for this novel class of cancer immunotherapeutic agents.