May 31, 2012

Month End Closing takes some Biotech stocks Lower

I have been watching certain Biotech stocks [ISIS (long), INCY (none)] over the past several weeks. Both have had fairly good gains, but today, as the market is down ~0.5%, we see that both of the stocks mentioned above are down 3% or so. While fundamentally no news has come out to bring them down more than the general market sentiment, it leads me to surmise that this might be due to month end closing of books and rebalancing of portfolios at some institutions.
That could be one cause of higher selling volume and consequent price drop. However, from technical standpoint, INCY is shying close to the 50 dma so it cuts through and goes below (21.4) the risk of it falling further is enhanced, barring any other major news.
No specific direction offered on either stocks for now. "Hold" is the word.

May 27, 2012

Japan Racing G1 Japanese Derby 2012

The 1 1/2 mile long Japanese Derby was held on Sunday Mar 27th in Tokyo. It is a race held on turf and 3 yo horses (no geldings) race to capture this prestigious trophy and lot of money!
Total prize money: ¥ 313,000,000 (about US$ 3,912,000 <US$1 = ¥80>

Deep Brilliante, the Deep Impact (sire) colt by Love and Bubbles (mare) won the derby by a nose, just holding off a fast closing Fenomeno.
Full Result Chart:  http://japanracing.jp/_news2012/pdf/120527.pdf

Video (youtube)



May 25, 2012

Belmont Stakes Update - I'll Have Another Equipment Change

I'll Have Another, the horse that is getting ready to compete in the Belmont Stakes 2012 in a bid to capture the elusive Triple Crown, will have to do that without his normal equipment of "nasal strips" during the stakes. This is because NYRA rules do not permit nasal strips, the only track authority in the country to do so.

The horse's trainer claims that this would have no effect on the horse, however, this might have some effect, especially considering the horse has to train for and compete in a longer race. I still hope that this horse overcomes this somewhat minor adversity and comes out on top.

More information and nasal strips etc at: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/70062/no-nasal-strip-no-problem-oneill-says?source=rss

An excerpt (fair use) from Blood horse is given here for a quick glance:

Nasal strips, produced by Flair LLC, are self-adhesive strips about three inches wide that provide "spring-like force" to the soft tissue overlaying a horse’s nasal passages. According to the company, eight peer-reviewed studies have shown the nasal strips reduce exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhaging, more commonly known as bleeding, by reducing the collapse of the soft nasal tissue during exercise.
Doug O’Neill, trainer of I’ll Have Another, said he uses the strips regularly on all his horses.
"I think it has some therapeutic value," O’Neill said. "I’m not a part of some study but it does seem to lessen the chance of bleeding."

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/70062/no-nasal-strip-no-problem-oneill-says#ixzz1vwRKRDtb

May 23, 2012

Belmont Stakes Update: Johnny V Picks up Mount for Union Rags

Kentucky Derby* (2011) and Eclipse award winning jockey John Velazquez has been selected as the jockey for Union Rags (Dixie Union colt, a winner of Gr 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes) in the Belmont stakes 2012.

Union Rags was ridden by Julien Leparoux in the last two outings and due to various reasons has not had great success. The colt was bottled up and could only muster a 3rd place in the Gr 1 Florida Derby. In the Kentucky Derby* the horse suffered a bad start, got squeezed bag and still closed fast to make it to 7th. But that was a big disappointment as Union Rags was one of the favorites to win the race (see earlier post).

With his big closing kick, Union Rags is still considered to be one of the contenders at the Belmont stakes, that could pose a serious challenge to Triple Crown hopeful I'll Have Another (Flower Alley colt) who has won the Kentucky Derby* and Preakness and firmly established himself as a superb horse and a solid triple crown contender after many years.

Blood horse has additional coverage on this topic and notes from trainer Michael Matz here.

May 21, 2012

Preakness 2012 Replay (Overhead) and how USA, Canada, Mexico connect to IHA

The Preakness 2012 is over and now all sights are firmly set at the Belmont Stakes in the horseracing world (in Northern America at least!), with high hopes on I'll Have Another to pull off a memorable Triple Crown -after over 34 years since Affirmed won in 1978 And what a beautiful way the three countries of the continent connect behind this horse! Congratulations to Mario Guttierez, trainer Doug O'Neill and his team, and to the owner and rest of the connections!

                      Canada - as the owner of the horse is Canadian businessman J. Paul Reddam,  
                      Mexico - as the country of origin for "Marvelous" Mario, the pilot of this superb horse and the original buyer/ Mr. Davila (a neat story about him here) and
                      USA - that's where the Triple Crown happens!

So there is lot of goodwill going and cheering going on from all three places. Below you will find a reply of the Preakness 2012, as an overhead video (courtesy NBC) with analysis from their commentators. I am not allowed to embed it, so I am just pointing you to the link

(it has a 30 sec commercial in the beginning)

Check out this great MSN video: Overhead replay of the Preakness

May 20, 2012

A legitimate Triple Crown Contender is there now

Preakness 2012 was won by a gritty I'll Have Another (colt, by Flower Alley) and in doing so the horse and the jockey Mario Gutierrez have firmly laid their path to the Triple Crown in US horseracing.

I had posted my selections here and I am not eating humble pie, as my "wishful thinking" choice Went the Day Well simply faltered and finished close to the back of the pack. Optimizer barely did well either. What is worse, my toss outs Creative Cause (for win) and Zetterholm, did surprisingly well to finish 3-4.

Yet, I somehow came out with a small exacta so my account did not go to zero.. and tomorrow, I'll have another shot at placing some small bets, haha.

Well, now this horse IHA has firmly stamped himself as truly classy horse and Belmont Stakes awaits!

CLICK TO GET INFO ON  TICKETS to the BELMONT STAKES
Race will be held on Sat June 9, 2012.

May 19, 2012

Preakness 2012 Selections

The Selections are:
5: Went the Day Well =  9: I'll Have Another.
7: Bodemeister
10 Optimizer - the wild card longshot who actually runs on his own, sometimes haha!


May 17, 2012

Preakness Day May 19th - May 18th Pimlico Special PP

I will be posting here some other selections from different tracks because I have decided to play value horses at different tracks on that day.

For Black Eyed Susan Stakes PPs on FRI May 18, 2012
Visit: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm
Scroll down to Todd Pletcher and click that link
In the new page that opens, scroll down to: Friday May 18, 2012   TODAY
                                       and select Ultimate PPs next to Pimlico Race 10

For FREE PREAKNESS 2012 PP (PPs) CLICK HERE

For FREE PIMLICO SPECIAL PP (PPs) 2012 go to www.drf.com now through before 5 pm FRI May 18. It is Pimlico Race 12

May 16, 2012

INCY - Exited Position

Based on insider sales transactions in mid- May (link-Y! Finance) where an "officer" sold $5 million worth of INCY shares, we feel that it is better to reduce risk exposure in INCY.

Additionally, there has been reports of GS upgrading INCY and labeling them as a potential takeover targets. End of the day it is still a few people's opinion, whether they work at GS or other equity research firms. That essentially boils down to "speculation" and usually it is sell side analysts that make public announcements like this.

Consequently, while we also feel that the odds are good that INCY might be taken over sometime over next year, we feel that it might be better to reduce capital outlay. Hence, we have sold out our INCY position yesterday (at 23.33). we might reenter shortly via long call options (strike undecided).

Preakness 2012 PPs Free

The Preakness (Grade I) stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown Series will be held on Saturday, May 19 this year at the Pimlico racetrack in Maryland. The contenders have been announced, the post positions are drawn and the morning line odds have been assigned. To make your own informed decisions on which horse to pick you can see the past performances (PPs) of the contenders at: PP PP's PPs

EQUIBASE FREE PP click -> (pdf download) or visit www.equibase.com and you will see Free PP in the main feature box.
Official Equibase Program with PP in pretty colors --> on Preakness Site

FREE BRISNET PP (Download from) Helloracingfans.com pdf 

FREE BrisNet PPs  (STEPS to FOLLOW)
  1. Brisnet charts:  Go to Horseracing.about.com's  link to free pps from trainers
  2. Click on Dale Romans or Doug ONeill or Graham Motion etc. 
  3. You will list of their races on Saturday and PPs - Click Ultimate PPs for Pimlico Race 12
  4. PDF will open up (or you can right click Ultimate PPs and save it to your computer.
This method works to get free past performance charts of various stables and trainers. It is not organized by track or day on the about.com website so you have to do some legwork.

DRF (Daily Racing Form PP) - Visit www.drf.com on Friday after noon for better luck. or search www.paceadvantage.com forums!

DRF PPs of Pimlico special (Race 12 on Friday May 18) is available free now (or visit drf.com and click the Free PP link before noon on friday!)

If you are interested in BONUS Wagering $ contact us at psusaver@gmail.com and we can refer you to Idabet.com or BetPTC.com or Xpressbet and also share some $$
(See terrms below ***)


  • Alternately, if you sign up for accounts with Twinspires (link on right side) you can obtain free PPs for each race as long as you make some minimum $2 wagers on those races.
  • With Xpressbet you get credit for the Equibase PP for the whole race card if you make at least one $2 wager at that track.
I will post my picks on Thursday or Friday night.


*** (For Bonus Wagering $$ Terms and conditions per each ADW apply, typically bonuses would be transferred via Amazon Payments; Offer can be withdrawn at anytime and is not endorsed by any of the ADWs mentioned here. All trademarks are owned by respective companies. Sharing of bonus referral $ will occur after you have met all terms and the $ has been deposited into our account by the ADW. This depends on many factors such as your wagering handle, time limitations set for referral bonus. You have to contact us by email before you sign up for proper procedure)

May 5, 2012

Kentucky Derby 2012: Selections and Money Making Ideas

It is Derby day 2012 and the track at Churchill Downs, Louisville KY is ready for the action. While the track was listed muddy starting the day, after Race 2, track condition has been upgraded to "Fast".

Now, to the list of contenders! The full list of 20 starting horses along with jockey and trainer names can be viewed on equibase.com (new window). The race is Race 11 on the card today.

On fast main track conditions these are the contenders based on speed, stamina, post position and closing kick analysis:

Win Contenders at longer odds (double check the horse numbers against names before betting etc. The names are the most accurate thoughts here)
(for live odds see: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/kentucky-derby-live-odds)

5 DULLAHAN
8 CREATIVE CAUSE

At short odds (below 7-1) and v good contenders:
15 GEMOLOGIST
4 UNION RAGS.

PL or SH bets choices (not all, pick what you like)

3 TAKE CHARGE INDY

8 CREATIVE CAUSE
7 ROUSING SERMON
9 TRINNIBERG
11 ALPHA
13 WENT THE DAY WELL

I would have liked to bet the 1 horse Daddy Long Legs, but the post position made me decide against.
A random theory for placing bets: Bet on any horse whose name contains the word GRIN. Try it!


Please Wager responsibly and if you want to sign up for an online wagering set up and need a referral to Xpressbet or Idabet.com please email me at psusaver at gmail.com and you can get an additional bonus.

May 3, 2012

Past Performance Charts

Rehashed:
If you go to horseracing.about.com then click FREE Past Performance on top left, then you go to a page with names of trainers and stables. Pick and choose the trainer names and you will see PPs for 2-3 days in advance. For California tracks, usually a Baffert PP would get you several races in the main CA circuits. Be sure to work with Horse names and cross check with the number in the program in your ADW before placing your bets.


A lot of horse players use past data of horses's performances to predict the outcome of the race the horse is running today. You can find that data for the Kentucky Derby Contenders here. If you want to wager, use one of the links to the right to Advanced Deposit Wagering (ADW's) or write to us at psusaver at gmail.com) to get a referral link that will give you bonuses!!

Without much ado, I will point you to the Kentucky Derby PPs from three different equine data companies:

Free Kentucky Derby PPs from Daily Racing Form (DRF)
http://www.drf.com/sites/default/files/HGDERBY.pdf

Free PDF file from Equibase:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbFreePP.cfm?t=CD&d=05-05-2012&n=11&de=D&c=USA

BRISNET pps can be found at:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/GODOLPHIN/9999/summary.html  (you will have to click on Ultimate PPs under Churcill Downs Race 11 (that is the Derby race on May 5, 2012).

Actually that is one of the many ways of reaching Brisnet free PPs for many races and future races. If you go to horseracing.about.com then click FREE Past Performance on top left, then you go to a page with names of trainers and stables. Pick and choose the trainer names and you will see PPs for 2-3 days in advance. For California tracks, usually a Baffert PP would get you several races in the main CA circuits. Be sure to work with Horse names and cross check with the number in the program in your ADW before placing your bets.

Each of these have their own positives and negatives, and different players use just one or two of the three. Others develop more methods based on data from these. I personally tend to use BRISNET/EQUIBASE and my own Excel calculations/paper pencil calculations on many occasions. I do use DRF occasionally, but it is the more pricier one so I use that only on occasion, when I find it free.


Background: If you are getting into horse racing, one thing many avid bettors or players do is use the past performance of a horse to gage his/her chances at today's race. A lot of the data needs to be purchased (for small fees) but there are also lot of PP files (pdfs) that can be downloaded for no cost (yes free), if you know where to look.

Several major trainers and owners (farms/stables) partner with Brisnet to provide past performance data for races coming up in the next few days as well as those on the same day.

Good luck and Happy Wagering!!

May 2, 2012

Kentucky Derby 138 - this Saturday!

The post positions are drawn!

Most of the horse are shipped in and turning in their workouts!

The Excitement is in the air!!

This Saturday, it will be the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby, an awesome spectacle of pageantry, fun and raw power of intelligent animals!


YES IT IS GOING TO BE DERBY DAY SOON!


And with that comes a great chance to make some cool cash while getting entertained.. and playing your skill and luck.


(Or, you could also lose some cash, but you will still get entertained, guaranteed!)


If you want to play the horses on Derby day, you can do so online!


Sign up for online wagering at
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Reviews of these advanced deposit wagering sites (ADWs) will be added shortly. We plan to review Xpressbet, Twinspires, Idabet and BetAmerica for now.

Disclaimer: Think before you wager.

We encourage responsibility in wagering behavior. It is essential for the recreational enjoyment of the products we link to. Therefore, we have provided a list of organizations for individuals to seek assistance if needed:

May 1, 2012

REXX, INCY, MDCO, ISIS

Just a small note on some shares. Shares of REX Energy (REXX) have been on the rise since April 16 when the company announced news of better than expected drilling. they also mentioned new charges/fees imposed by the state of PA, REXX will record $600,000 expenses in the first quarter. Anyhow, REXX shares have climbed roughly 18% since Apr 16 (from 9.25 to 10.95 on May 1st). Consequently we feel it too risky to hold through the earnings today.
Since we are in a profitable position (entry at $9.45 in mid April), we are exiting with a small profit and watching from the sidelines. Long term call options are too expensive to buy currently too.
Update: Although we got out, REXX reported earnings 1% higher than high case guidance and is consequently trading higher at premarket (at 11.35). If natural gas price remains stable or upward, then the stock has lot of room to grow!

INCY: Although we made predictions (random ones) of stock price going to $24 by Dec, that did not happen, but recent momentum has pushed shares up quite a bit. We are however sitting long on this.

MDCO: Predictions made did not reach target in Dec, so we offloaded about half of the shares in mid Feb. However, we still have some more and it was nice to see recent gains pushing the price up to the 22's. Holding for now, as we feel it can go higher.

ISIS: this has been a long hold since Jan and we are slightly in the red. The mistake was not adding more when the price was attractive in March. However, we do not believe in adding money to illiquid stocks unless we have very certain information about growth. Hold for now.

REXX news source (for Apr 16 news)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rex-energy-says-1q-drilling-155814119.html

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