May 19, 2012

Preakness 2012 Selections

The Selections are:
5: Went the Day Well =  9: I'll Have Another.
7: Bodemeister
10 Optimizer - the wild card longshot who actually runs on his own, sometimes haha!


6: Creative Cause and 8: Daddy Nose Best could contend for the 5th spot on your super hi-5 tickets.

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1: Tiger Walk: has a fast workout to his credit recently but I am not sure if he can pull the speed for the distance at race time. Looks to be out of money completely unless they change tactics and run him fast on the rail.

So, if odds are more than 10-1 on win, I would bet him in the show pool.

2: Teeth of the Dog: Has run two 1 1/8th races and is well rested coming in here. He had to take wider trip in the wood memorial and has an experienced Joe Bravo, but no johhny V on him. probably keep in the bottom two of superfectas.

3: Pretension: not much early speed, at least when compared to the other contenders in the this race. He wins when he can control the early pace at moderate speeds. Other cases, he just falls off after 1 1/16, so to ask him to go full speed for 2/16th more to win...against this group.. VERY TOUGH.. toss

4: Zetterholm: tricky horse to gage, but it still seems like he can be smartly ridden to give a nice finishing kick (to finish in the top 3). However, those victories have occurred in 1m or 1mi70 yd races where early pace was not too great. Although his sire (Silver Train) showed early speed and won many 6f, 7f and 1mi stakes by being upfront, Zetterholm has mostly sat at the back and then rallied. Not sure if that would help him at Preakness 2012.

5: Went the Day Well. Went the Day Well has shown he can lead and still show decent speed at the end (in his maiden efforts in England and Gulfstream). He has also shown he can stalk or come from back. overall he is right up at the top for 1-2-3 honors and I think he would have somewhat of a decent price. Closed fastest in the K Derby even after having problems due to other horses (bumps etc). Has Johnny V on board (last yr derby winning jockey and overall one of the top names). The kentucky derby was the only time this horse seems to have finished farther than 3rd (he finished 4th and was only 3/4 lengths behind Dullahan in his entire career till now. He closed very fast - so his final kick is very good too. A contender.

6: Creative Cause. he is a good horse, a very good one. But when i compare him to I'll Have Another and how CC did in SA Derby at 1&1/8 mi, he was weakening at the wire. Move to K Derby ( 1&4/16 mi)and you see him close fairly ok but then he again weakend fro 3rd to 5th. Now Preakness is 1&3/16 If the odds are better than 8-1 I could bet him for PLACE or SH. otherwise..no.

7: Bodemeister: he is a rightful favorite with good speed. However it depends on the tactics of other horses. In any case, he either wires the field and romps home or he is a solid duel with IHA and WTDW and the result is a photofinish. Would use him tri and superfectas but the win/pl price may not be great.

8: Daddy Nose Best: This horse is one that has shown he has improving winning margins going to the wire in various races, a positive sign. He had to be steadied in the Derby so I don't know if he could have done better if not. Good pedigree. Worth a small bet as price may be high. Good jockey on board and he is a regular. Is one of the most raced of the pack and has mostly done with Julien Leparoux.

9. IHA - K. Derby/Santa Anita Derby winner and Robert Lewis stks and showing good closing wins in all. A versatile horse. The one to beat. Expect low price. He will have to truly earn his way into the Triple crown though and I think he will give a great fight.

10. Optimizer: Gets an experience jockey as a switch (ie new one in). He has not won a race after his maiden. Seems to have a lot of bad luck, like jockey losing whip or having to be steadied, bumps etc. but this also points to the horse maybe not being a true fighter.. or can he prove me wrong? Apart from the gut feeling about jockey.. I feel hard to justify this horse. I feel his connections have over raced him at wrong spots.

11. Cozzetti. I dont know much about this horse, but I am giving you what I know by reading charts.


RANDOMNESS: If you like continuous numbers, just play 5-6-7-8-9 or any rolling combos on $1 trifectas. It's like playing the lottery, you might hit something and it might be big!


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