Spectrum Pharma

If you currently hold Spectrum Pharma, and are looking to get out, you can set some limit sells around $ 4.25-$4.30 range.  During a surge it might get filled. On the other hand, you can also sell half at the $4.25 pricing range and hold on  to the other half, as current sentiment on it seems positive and it might climb through beyound the 50 day moving average of $ 4.29 and go forward up till $5 and on.

Updates!! on NON-biotech stocks.

Dear Readers,
Sorry we have been out of action on this blog. But that has mainly been because of the fact that we got heavily into options trading on several volatile and/or promising stocks like SFLY, APWR, TSO, HUN etc. With POSITIVE results. 
After SFLY's climb of 17% we have closed out our position. However, there is a significant chance of a small pullback and a new climb again. Considering SLFY is above it's 50 and 200 day moving averages and has made a new 52 wk high, it looks like a good prospect for growth.

APWR has been up and down, but now it looks to be on course for a fresh climb. We still hold open positions in APWR and expect to get out around the $15-$16 range in the near future.


Now, let us speak about the most promising pick for the next few months: TSO. This refiner has begun to climb back from the recent lows in the 11 dollar range, so the timing is good to get back on any short term pullbacks and look to hold it for a 3-5 month range through summer. Barring any major changes in world oil prices, TSO should smartly climb up to the 17-19 range by August-September.


Hunstman Chemicals (HUN), has been a very solid stock and has been posting good earnings and revenues. Expect this stock to have good support and more growth packed in. Add on market down days is about the only piece of wisdom I can share when it comes to HUN.


Lastly if you are thinking of getting into options, then check out these books before you start trading:

1.The Rookie's Guide to Options: The Beginner's Handbook of Trading Equity Options

2. Trading Options at Expiration: Strategies and Models for Winning the Endgame 


ADVICE:
NEVER TRADE ON MARGIN. Keep a margin account for easy settlement, but NEVER use the margin to actually trade or hold overnight.

Biotech/Pharma Stocks and Upcoming FDA Actions Dates

A few biotech stocks whose FDA approval/response dates are coming up are listed here without any analysis or predictions. Momentum traders could use these tickers, study the stock behavior and make appropriate trades. Or look at the drug/device's long term trial/data process and make bets on either side of the trade and hold steady. Good luck and don't be greedy. Stocks are listed from the nearest date of decision onward. Thanks for a diligent poster (sxyam) on the yahoo message board of HUN.
Chelsea Therapeutics(CHTP Quote)
Drug/indication: Droxidopa for neurogenic orthostatic hypotension
Outcome of FDA meeting to discuss changing primary endpoint of phase III study: December 2009.

Cephalon(CEPH Quote)
Drug/indication: Nuvigil for jet lag disorder
FDA approval decision date: Dec. 29

Arena Pharmaceuticals(ARNA Quote)
Drug/indication: lorcaserin for obesity
Filing for FDA approval: December 2009

Auxilium Pharmaceuticals(AUXL Quote)
Drug/indication: Xiaflex for Dupuytren's contracture
FDA approval decision date: December 2009

Biodel(BIOD Quote)
Drug/indication: Viaject for diabetes
Filing for FDA approval: December 2009

Novartis(NVS Quote)
Drug/indication: fingolomid for multiple sclerosis
Filing for FDA approval: December 2009

Novo Nordisk(NVO Quote)
Drug/indication: Victoza for diabetes
FDA approval decision date: December 2009

Shire Pharmaceuticals(SHPGY Quote)
Drug/indication: Replagal for Fabry's disease
Filing for FDA approval: December 2009

Vivus(VVUS Quote)
Drug/indication: Qnexa for obesity
Filing for FDA approval: December 2009

Mannkind(MNKD Quote)
Drug/indication: Afresa for diabetes
FDA approval decision date: Jan. 16, 2010

Acorda Therapeutics(ACOR Quote)
Drug/indication: Amaya for multiple sclerosis
FDA approval decision date: Jan. 22, 2010

Spectrum Pharmaceuticals(SPPI Quote)
Drug/indication: Fusilev for colon cancer
Outcome of meeting with FDA to discuss complete response letter: January 2010

Labopharm(DDSS Quote)
Drug/indication: Trazodone Contramid for depression
FDA approval decision date: Feb. 11, 2010

Cadence Pharmaceuticals(CADX Quote)
Drug/indication: acetavance for pain
FDA approval decision date: Feb. 12, 2010

Gilead Sciences(GILD Quote)
Drug/indication: Cayston for cystic fibrosis
FDA approval decision date: Feb. 13, 2010

Salix Pharmaceuticals(SLXP Quote)
Drug/indication: Xifaxan for hepatic encephalopathy
FDA advisory committee meeting: February 2010
FDA approval decision date: March 24, 2010

Shire Pharmaceuticals(SHPGY Quote)
Drug/indication: velaglucerase for Gaucher's disease
FDA approval decision date: Feb. 28, 2010

Amylin Pharmaceuticals(AMLN Quote)
Drug/indication: Exenatide LAR for diabetes
FDA approval decision date: March 5, 2010

Clinical Data(CLDA Quote)
Drug/indication: vilazodone for depression
Filing for FDA approval: First quarter 2010

Somaxon Pharmaceuticals(SOMX Quote)
Drug/indication: Silenor for insomnia
Outcome of FDA meeting to discuss complete response letter: First quarter 2010

Cell Therapeutics(CTIC Quote)
Drug/indication: pixantrone for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
FDA approval decision date: April 23, 2010

Eli Lilly(LLY Quote)
Drug/indication: Erbitux for first-line non-small cell lung cancer
Filing for FDA approval: First quarter 2010

Dendreon(DNDN Quote)
Drug/indication: Provenge for prostate cancer
FDA approval decision date: May 1, 2010

Avanir Pharmaceuticals(AVNR Quote)
Drug/indication: Zenvia for pseudobulbar effect
Filing for FDA approval: Second quarter 2010

Alkermes(ALKS Quote)
Drug/indication: Vivitrol for opioid addiction
Filing for FDA approval: First half 2010

InterMune(ITMN Quote)
Drug/indication: pirfenidone for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis
FDA advisory committee meeting: First half 2010

FDA approval decision date: Second half 2010

Human Genome Sciences(HGSI Quote)
Drug/indication: Benlysta for lupus
Filing for FDA approval: First half 2010

Orexigen Therapeutics(OREX Quote)
Drug/indication: Contrave for obesity
Filing for FDA approval: First half 2010

CDC Update

The Center for Disease Control (CDC) analyzes influenza activity and publishes key findings each week.

Key Flu Indicators

FluView.*

During the week of November 1-7, 2009, a review of key indicators found that certain indicators declined, while others continued to rise. Overall, flu activity in the United Sates remained very high. Below is a summary of the most recent key indicators:

• Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) nationally decreased this week over last week. This is the 2nd week of national decreases in ILI after four consecutive weeks of sharp increases. (Visits to doctors for ILI is still higher than what is seen during the peak of many regular flu seasons.
• Total influenza hospitalization rates for laboratory-confirmed flu continue to climb and remain higher than expected for this time of year.
  
• The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report continues to increase and has been higher than what is expected for six weeks now.
• Forty-six states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time; This many reports of widespread activity at this time of year are unprecedented during seasonal flu.
• Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far continue to be 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir with rare exception.

Our inferences and predictions:
The rare exception as well as the cases of hospitalization both seem to be good candidates for increased use of peramivir (BCRX) or intravenous Relenza (GSK)/Tamiflu (RHHBY.PK).

NVAX Special Opinion

If any new investors to NVAX are panicking because of this article on Motley Fool, fear not. The Fool used to be a good source, but with their open source approach of letting anyone write articles, it has become a general bulletin board where everyone is free to dish their opinion. For instance, the author Tim Hanson has completely missed Novavax's long standing work in virus like particle (VLP) technology based vaccines for seasonal flu.
In fact NVAX is currently initiating phase II studies on comparing the dosing of its VLP based vaccine to existing flu vaccines (of other companies) {press release pdf}.

The problem with this approach is that there is no objective or comprehensive coverage of companies. Instead, we have a piecemeal approach picking on factors and comments on "absence of long term plans" -(paraphrased).

Tim Hanson says:
"I'm not here to be negative about either Novavax"

That was a funny circuitious route towards attacking a company which has very clear long term plans. Especially with long term manufacturing agreements with Cadila (india) and another company in Spain. They also have seasonal flu vaccines for long term (let me see) EVERY YEAR. Stop whining about sour grapes and actually make some real research. In addition, NVAX CEO has come to Novavax with 25 yrs big pharma experience because he saw big potential here.

Anyways, i am sitting in NVAX, long term with several long calls for next year. I am not concerned much. But what I am concerned is for small retail investors (who I was one of 3 years back) who would be misled by these opinions posing as research.

With today's search capabilities, it is quite easy to come up with a timeline of almost anything. In case of NVAX, you can check out their timeline with vaccine development and other progress here.