April 29, 2011

SPPI - What is Happening?

The Food and Drug Administration posted its approvals for the day.

No sign of Fusilev for colorectal cancer.

SPPI (spectrum pharma) has no news yet on its website:

No SPPI halts listed either.


And SPPI has been dropping like a rock because we all know how Wall Street works. What is worse, you never know if SPPI will do their dilution in June. It is a wait and watch or take your 15% loss and get out game now.

unless they flip it like HGSI or DNDN.. Pharmas are roller coasters.. wow!

No major intelligent advise provided in this post.

April 28, 2011

Potty Reading About Ukraine Crimea and CORN futures

I was flipping through my April issue of National Geographic Magazine while on the potty and came across an interesting article on the peninsula of Crimea, the Black sea and how it is predominantly filled with ethnic Russians (from the Soviet era) while being a territory of Ukraine. (Just give me a minute, we will move to CORN and grain futures soon!)


Later, I was googling stuff about Ukraine when I came across this article on barley trade. This set off some bells ringing related to crop futures (esp Corn/Wheat) as recently there has been "promotions' of CORN ETFs on Yahoo Finance's Breakout. (Corn could be the next silver. Really, I knew that people used corn to adorn themselves, but seriously!).

Anyhow, I had been recently thinking about doing some option trades on CORN or MOO, and wondered how the entry of Ukraine/Russia back into export market would affect grain future prices. In the big picture, it is good for companies that buy raw material and sell finished products. Once they raise prices, they don't lower them much, so it might be more fun to trade the likes of ADM BG etc.

Disclosure: No positions in anything mentioned here. I might initiate some long position in BG after some research. Their earnings were good!

My own feeling is the Commodity futures definitely are not something for the small investor/trader. The big players have it cornered really well so that anybody small would only get hurt if they try to trade. oh well. another day, another story.

April 21, 2011

CSR Merger Details and Risk

China Security agreed to be taken out by its management for $6.50 a share. CSR was trading close 5.46 at the time of this post (12;35pm Apr 21, 2011). So why the difference. Either the market makers are playing.. or there is some inherent risk still.

If you look at the SEC filing, it talks of either parties exiting by Apr 20 (that is taken care of). or the company exiting by May 4. So that might be the time premium here.
Each of the Company, Rightmark and Merger Sub has made customary representations and warranties to each other in the Merger Agreement. Completion of the Merger is subject to customary closing conditions, including, but not limited to, (i) adoption of the Merger Agreement by the Company’ stockholders, (ii) the absence of any order or injunction prohibiting the consummation of the Merger and (iii) truth and correctness of each party’s representations and warranties at closing. The Merger Agreement may be terminated under certain circumstances, including, among others, termination by mutual agreement of the parties, termination by either party if the Merger is not consummated on or before April 20, 2012 and termination by the Company at any time for any reason on or prior to May 4, 2011, as set forth in the Merger Agreement.

It is safe ONLY after May 4 (IMO) and that too if no lawyer/court orders are involved prohibiting it etc., otherwise it is risky. Maybe that is the reason CSR is not trading at expected merger price..

"Correction": Also if the merger is not consummated by Apr 20, 2012 - this depends on shareholder vote and other details, merger can be terminated. But chances of that seem slim.

Also, the earnings of the company, due on Apr 25th might be another factor in the stock price.

Disclosure: I have no positions in CSR and no plan to initiate any positions.

SPPI Spectrum Pharma (pre) files for BIG dilution

Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SPPI) recently put out an SEC filing (pre14a) where the CEO wrote a letter asking shareholders to vote for board members, informed them about record revenues etc. But what was conveniently left out from the letter, but present in the next page was this staggering news.

The approval of an amendment to our Certificate of Incorporation to increase the authorized number of shares of common stock from 100,000,000 to 175,000,000; .

That is some BIG DILUTION. The meeting is set for June 13, 2011 at 10:30 a.m. Pacific Time.

FDA's response to Spectrum's quest to get Fusilev approved for use in treating colorectal cancer (in US) is due on April 29th, 2011. Whether that news (is positive) will move the stock more or if the dilution will have a bigger impact is to be seen.

Insider buy/sales are not too clear with only 4000 net shares bought in the last several months.
Disclosure: No positions as of now. And it looks too volatile for me to initiate any position. I just wrote this post to let people know about the dilution as well as to get some page views


Sources used for research:
Seeking Alpha article
Edgar Filing

UPDATE:

Spectrum Pharma announces FDA approval of FUSILEV's ready-to-use formulation (SPPI) 9.05 -0.03 : Co announces that the FDA has approved co's Supplemental New Drug Application for FUSILEV Injection. Unlike the currently available lyophilized product, this approval is for a "Ready-to-Use" formulation of FUSILEV for Injection. "We are pleased that the FDA has approved the 'Ready-to-Use' formulation of FUSILEV... As the name implies, the RTU formulation provides an additional option for physician and medical staff use. The RTU formulation requires no reconstitution, and is of a higher strength than the currently available lyophilized formulation.

April 15, 2011

Time to Look at Natural Gas (Japan related)

Since the nuclear plants have been down in Japan, the general analysis was that their electricity needs in the short term will most likely  be met via natural gas. This thesis has recently been confirmed with TEPCO reporting that it would be building two additional gas turbines at its thermal power plants to increase capacity. However, Japan might still face rolling blackouts this summer as the additional capacity built would only be close to 1116 MW. (see TEPCO press release here)

TEPCO's press release states that they have ceased blackouts temporarily due to increased conservation by customers.

We had previously mentioned about possibly initiating positions in either Teekay LNG partners (TGP) or Golar LNG. However, due to funds rotation and technical signals we had waited. This proved fortunate as TGP announced an offering to raise money (priced at approx $38.7). This brought TGP down from the 42's to the high 30's. The general stock market weakness contributed to some additional pricing discount, making TGP even more attractive (assuming the distribution would be maintained or increased).

I am not making any predictions on GLNG. However, TGP I feel has some room to run. I have not analyzed GLNG that well.

End of the day, stock market is still a risky business and nothing hear can be counted as advice from a licensed professional as I am not one and I am not earning anything from you ;) :)

Happy Trading and Good luck

April 14, 2011

GOOG EPS miss - Shares down in AH

Internet search leader GOOG reported earnings. Revenue was better at $8.58 Billion. Net revenue was also better than expectations at $6.54 billion. Adjusted EPS was slightly below expectations but the stock is getting hammered in After market (down 4.7%) [Nasdaq AH] with over 700,000 shares changing hands already.

CSCO, AKAM are also down, but IBM is up slightly.

Some numbers were cross checked with business insider.

ZIPCAR-IPO - Banks and Underwriters make more..??

ZIPCAR - the company that provides a service of car sharing (with gas included) in big cities and college campuses, made an IPO today. The company had initially priced it offering at 14-16, then raised it to $18/share on perceived demand. However, the underwriters of the IPO still managed to most likely pull a fast one and net money to themselves and their clients - rather than the IPO making company.

Imagine, ZIPCAR should have got ~$30 for each share or at least $28 or so, but instead they lost $10 per share at least due to some sloppy advice - whether purposeful or not is questionable.

Then we have people evaluating it to be a billion dollar company based on some fuzzy math..

Hat tip to a Seeking alpha writer.

April 13, 2011

Bristol Myers Squibb - BMY - VERY Unusual Afterhours activity

Big cap pharmaceuticals Bristol Myers (BMY) saw some very unusual activity in after hours trading today  (source Nasdaq AH quotes). (see pic below).

Some 57200 shares changed hands (or did they??) at $ 32.46 (~ 18.8 % premium to the closing price). This made my heart stop for a moment, as I had recently sold some BMY stock at a small profit but also bought (and hold) a few May $29 calls.


Anyhow the reminder of the after hours trades (over 157, 000 shares) all have traded between 27.29 to 27.43 so the trades at 32.46 definitely sound super odd.

 Most likely this seems like some trading anomaly or a fat finger trade?  (google)

April 8, 2011

DUSA - Trading Alerts

DUSA Pharmaceuticals, which has relentlessly climbing in the last year and especially in the last month, has taken a pause on Thurs (Apr 7) followed by a drop today (Apr 8). DUSA dropped from the 5.70's to 5.50's today (over 3%).

CHART

Based on the chart, DUSA appears to have a resistance around 5.17-5.23. So if you are a trader and had built a position from the 3's one would consider a protective stop just above 5. Good luck and happy trading.

April 7, 2011

SUPERGEN Acquires ASTEX PHARMA and agrees to change Name to Astex

Supergen (SUPG) agreed to acquire privately held British biotech company Astex Therapeutics ltd and change name to Astex Pharmaceuticals. Eventually, Supergen will start trading under the symbol ASTX. The combined company website as of now is Astex-supergen

By acquiring Astex, Supergen is expanding its pipeline somewhat. this is a somewhat promising, however, whether this makes the combined entity a more lucrative take over candidate, this is hard to comment on.

SUPG shares fell to 2.85 range or nearly 12% from about 3.2 the day before. The pertinent point to note is that Supergen is paying $25 million cash and about 35% of outstanding stock. In addition, they would pay over $30 million dollars over the next 30 months. So it is interesting to see the market responds with a 12% decline when an impending 35% dilution of shares is concerned. However, the incoming pipeline also has substantial value so an accurate price determination is hard for one person to gage at this point.

April 6, 2011

Changes in Portfolio

Some of my recent picks were listed here.
Closed out of BMY after holding through ex-div date and moderate profit. Reason: feel jittery about company's overall accounting risk wrt employee turnover and uncertainly on plavix. Might initiate a small option position (long call) to follow the company with lower risk.

CLDX: closed out of Apr $4 calls as well as a short term stock trade for 5% profit (held 2 days). However since CLDX seems to be holding well at the 200 day average of 4.25, I rentered into CLDX in a long position by buying Aug $5 calls.


Reduced holdings in DUSA to make cash for some other moves. However, maybe it was nt a smart play as DUSA climbs relentlessly!

Closed out of SUPG stock

April 5, 2011

Celldex - Why it's moving again and what's in store?

After being "let go" by Pfizer last year, the stock has seen several lows and then seems to be picking itself up again. This article seeks to discuss the potential for Celldex with its current trials/pipeline etc. Any input from other knowledgeable folks/traders etc appreciated.

Rindopepimut (CDX-110): Clinical Program (source:http://www.celldextherapeutics.com/wt/page/cdx_110)
Rindopepimut (CDX-110) is an immunotherapy that targets the tumor specific molecule called EGFRvIII, a functional variant of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), a protein that has been well validated as a target for cancer therapy.
A list of upcoming events are normally shown here.

I am going to be adding more here in collaboration with inputs from Yahoo message board members and other pharma friends of mine.

April 1, 2011

Recent picks, climbing positions and updates

Stockgage recently closed some positions and then inititated some:

New additions are: BMY, LAVA options.

Closed positions in profit: #LAVA

Closed positions at small loss: URRE, #MENT (gasp!)


Old Positions Looking up: #CLDX #SUPG

Looking at new picks: RSTI CGNX

There is some speculation on the street that MENT might make a bid for LAVA around 560 million. Seems like a lowball offer to me. But, it will be fun to see CDNS jump into the picture too then!!
If you want to read about all these MENT LAVA CDNS SNPS Apache, read Semiwiki articles <<


St JOE's Real Estate just rented out some land for up to 20 (yes TWENTY years) for a sum of $ 55 million. The big question then is --> when does the timber get harvested. When does development begin, when do the real profits from real estate show up? This $ 55 million would just add to the balance sheet to make things look nicer. I think I might short this one!
Update:  I have finally initiated Jan 2012 $17.50 put positions in JOE. Let us see how this plays out!
Old adage: buy the rumor, sell the news.

Disclaimer: None of these are recommendations to buy or sell equities/options/investment etc

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